Mets MD

Mets 5 Tigers 0: Dickey in Control

2010-06-24T07:31:00.002-04:00

R.A. Dickey improved to 6-0 yesterday with a masterful 8 inning shutout performance of the Tigers. Dickey retired 15 of the last 16, striking out 4 and walking 2. Though he threw just 6 swinging strikes, he got 12 groundouts. His FIP, xFIP and tRA, while all being higher than his ERA, meaning regression is likely to occur, they are all in the 3s, meaning that Dickey will porbably continue this level of performance.

One reason why Dickey has been so effective is that as a knuckleballer, the pitch doesn't really move in the same way every time. The above graph shows just how much his knuckler was moving yesterday. Sometimes the pitch won't move, and on that occasion Dickey will be in trouble, but, as we've seen with Tim Wakefield, he can be a league average or better pitcher for the minimum salary.

Player of The Game: R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes share the honors today. Reyes was a double away from the cycle and had .212 WPA, while Dickey increased the Mets chances of winning by 42.4%.

Yankees 2-1 Mets: Gah!

2010-05-22T06:38:00.002-04:00

My first recap of 2010, and hopefully the first of many, if I have time to do it.
I'll be doing a new format of recap:

Questionable move
A detailed look into any ~~jaw dropping idiocities~~ questionable moves made by the Mets in the game.
Pitch F/x graph of the day
Usually looking at the strikezone plot or spin times speed of the Mets pitcher in the game.
Idea of the game
Personnel, game strategy; just my 2 cents on what could've been done differently. It can be tied back into Questionable move of the day.

So, to the recap:

Questionable move: Jerry Manuel has awful bullpen management skills. He's used Fernando Nieve in 25 games, and is projected to use him in 94. Nieve now no longer has the shiny ERA, and he has terrible peripherals, including a 15/15 K/BB ratio, and he has a high 5 FIP, xFIP and tRA. He should not be the set up man at all. Of course, in the Top of the 7th, Jerry goes to Elmer Dessens, who was just called up. While Dessens was unlucky to give up 2 runs (great defense, Alex Cora), but at what stage should he have been taken out? With runners at second and third, and none out, the Leverage Index was 2.44, which is highly above average. Jerry should've gone to his best available reliever, which was Francisco Rodriguez. Never mind him being the closer, he's the best reliever, and he should be coming in at high leverage situations, no matter the inning.
Pitch F/x graph

Takahashi's fastball was pretty effective, coupled with a slider down and away against lefties and a sinker down and away against righties. Despite not being a hard thrower, he still got 12.9% swinging strikes, which is above average. Swinging strikes is important because it can indicate how many strikeouts a pitcher will get; yesterday Takahashi struck out 5.
Idea of the game
Jeff Francoeur had a pretty awful game yesterday, like most of the Mets offense. However, he only saw 9 pitches in his 3 at bats as he went 0/3, dropping down to .221/.280/.379. Over his career, Francoeur hits lefties better than righties, having a .771 OPS against lefites, and a .725 OPS against righties. Over his minor league career, Chris Carter has a .896 OPS against righties, 100 points over his OPS against lefties. My idea is that Jerry Manuel platoon Francoeur and Carter, with Carter starting against righties, and Francoeur starting against lefties. It might be one way to get Francoeur to hit better, and to get more the Mets offense hitting better.

Raul Valdes for the rotation?

2010-05-20T21:07:00.003-04:00

When Oliver Perez was removed from the rotation, Raul Valdes was mentioned as a possible replacement. In the end, the Mets went with R.A. Dickey, but Valdes came in for John Maine when he was removed for precautionary reasons, and pitched extremely well, striking out 6 in 5 innings. Is he a viable option for the rotation?

Stats:
Valdes, so far, has thrown 20.1 innings, hardly a big sample size. He has struck out 10.2/9 IP, and has a 3.3 K/BB ratio, both excellent figures.
As the above graph shows (click to make larger) Valdes gets excellent movement. That is one reason for his success, and his curve ball, with the most movement, is his outpitch, worth 2.8 runs.

The above graph again shows his movement, this time from the catchers perspective. The curve is a great pitch against lefties, though against righties, not as much, as it's down and in to them.

Conclusion
He has a somewhat worrying flyball trend that could regress, and I'd worried about him against righties. If he is going to start, the ideal conditions would be at Citi Field, with the large outfield, and against a lefty dominated lineup.

Johan's changeup

2010-04-23T19:58:00.005-04:00

Johan Santana struck out 5 yesterday, and his great change up was particularly impressive. I'm going to look at Johan's tabular data for his changeup.
Velocity Pfx_x Pfx_z Px Pz Break length
80.01 MPH 7.43 6.07 .5 2.2 7.65”

What does that all mean? Here is a useful glossary, done by Mike Fast.
Velocity is obviously the velocity of the pitch, when released. Pfx_x is the horizontal movement of the pitch, in inches. Pfx_z is the vertical movement, in inches. Px is the location, in feet, horizontally. Right is positive, left is negative, and it's from the middle of the plate. Pz is the location in feet, vertically. Break length is the measurement of the greatest distance in inches from the straight path of a hypothetical pitch thrown from the same place.

Here is the location of his changeup
Point (0,-3) would be a right handed batter's feet, approximately.
Here's the average location of his changeup in just the strike zone.
As you can see, it's down and away, which is what makes it so devastating to right handed hitters.

I'm Back

2010-04-23T15:15:00.002-04:00

Well, another season is in full swing, and I will be honest, I was nervous at the beginning. However it seems, like for the time being the Mets will be OK. Ike Davis, (a member of one of my fantasy teams) is proving that he is the future of the team. The team now has a even more solid core to build around. It seems like Frenchy is the outfield stud instead of his canadian counter part Jason Bay. If you look at pitching, only two of the rotation is looking shaky in Perez and Maine. Niese is showing glimpses that he can be a solid third starter, Pelf is looking like the second starter this team needs, and Santana has been great 3 of the 4 times he's gone out. This weekends series with the Braves is a big one, not only because they are a division rival, but because in a division filled with so many young stars, two of the youngest are the Braves Jason Heyward (the greatest hitting prospect in years according to SI) and Ike Davis (the savior). The Mets will try and ride the high they have after winning their first series of the year against the Cubs. They will send out Maine, Niese, and in the Sunday night game, Pelf agaist Tommy Hanson. That game might be the best chance to see a showcase of great all around young players. Both pitchers are 3-0, Frenchy is playing his old team, and the Mets are looking to show they can contend with the top tier of the division.

If only

2010-04-14T21:38:00.002-04:00

It's not time to panic, not yet

2010-04-12T19:53:00.003-04:00

When the Mets lost 2 out of 3 to the Nationals, and went to 2-4 for the season, there has been a lot of Fire Jerry proclaiming. I have 2 problems with this. 1) is that if you're going to fire Jerry 6 games into the season, why not do it at the end of last year? 2) we're a great catch away from being 3-3, and we lost a game in extras. While we're struggling to hit, and some of the pitching hasn't been great so far, the Mets are not in terrible shape, just yet. Even if they are, there is hope for next season and 2012. The Mets still have a core of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Johan Santana. They will be joined in 2011 by Josh Thole and Ike Davis. Ruben Tejada will provide great defence at second base, instead of the black hole that is Luis Castillo. Jeff Francoeur can provide ok offence in right field, and if Plus/Minus is right, above average defence. Carlos Beltran will play out his contract, and will be resigned to a cheaper 2 year deal, and still hit to a tune of a .372 wOBA. And if he doesn't, Fernando Martinez will make his long anticipated debut. Meanwhile, Johan Santana will pitch well, Jon Niese and Mike Pelfrey will provide 4.25 FIPs and Oliver Perez will be serviceable. Jenrry Mejia will be a starter and be awesome.
So don't panic yet Mets fans. The future is still bright enough.

MIke Jacobs is a waste of space

2010-04-07T20:30:00.003-04:00

When Daniel Murphy went down with his knee injury, Mike Jacobs was assured of a starter's spot, and even batted fourth. But what did Jacobs deserve to get that spot? Chris Carter had a much better spring, and even had the praise of Jerry Manuel, being called "an animal". But Omar Minaya was impressed by Jacobs' past history of hitting homers, if this quote means anything:

"If you see the teams in the World Series, they’ve got power," Mets General Manager Omar Minaya said. "You’ve got to be able to break the game open. It’s not only home runs, it’s slugging. I think the right word is slug. You’ve got to get the extra bases."

The problem is that Jacobs really doesn't do anything, except hit an occasional homer. Last year he had a .305 wOBA, 25 points below league average, and 45 points below his positional average, and 8 points behind his position replacement level (.313). He had a .282 BABIP, right along his career average, and his xBABIP was .303, so he wasn't extremely unlucky. Instead, he just had a bad season. He then followed that up batting .194 in the Spring. Chris Carter had a far superior spring, and had a .360 wOBA last year, and a .376 wOBA the year before, both in AAA. He can actually play a decent right or left field contrary to popular belief, and despite being pretty bad at first, he's better than Jacobs. In the end, Jacobs shouldn't even be on the team, let alone batting fourth, and if he is on the team, what is he doing batting fourth? Your 3rd best hitter should bat fourth, than third, than fifth. Jacobs should hit 7th or 8th, in front of Cora, but behind Francoeur.
In the end this is a subject that I'm nitpicking on, but its just another example of bad mismanagement by Jerry and Omar, and also shows that Omar only has knowledge of players he once had.

Calero, Niese, Figueroa and Mejia

2010-03-06T06:59:00.003-05:00

The Mets signed Kiko Calero to a minor league contract, with $850 K if he makes the team and $650 K for performance bonuses. This is a great move by Omar Minaya and the Mets, and can shore up the back end of the rotation. Calero, 35, had a 2.39 tRA, 2.56 FIP, and a 3.92 xFIP. He also had a 1.95 ERA, which makes it interesting that no one else wanted to sign him.

Fernando Nieve pitched yesterday, and went 3 innings against the Cardinals, giving up 1 run while walking 2 and striking out 2. Nelson Figueroa, in the same game went 4 innings, striking out 5 and walking 1, though it was against a more weaker lineup as Pujols and Holliday were taken out.
Jon Niese went 2.2 innings, giving up a run, striking out 5, and walking 2, against the Marlins. Jenry Mejia went 2.1 innings, and striking out 4 and walking none. Despite Mejia's impressive beginning, he should stay in the minors this year, to keep his inning number down, and maybe can come up as a reliever later in the year a la Joba Chamberlain.

Meanwhile in the race for the number 5 starter, Fernando Nieve is going to make the team, as a long man or starter, because he's out of options. Figueroa should also make the team, as he's a solid pitcher who can start or relieve and had better peripheals last year than Nieve. And Jon Niese, who I would love to be the number 5 starter, will probably be in AAA, though will come up if one of the starters gets injured.

Could Jerry Manuel be making the right move?

2010-02-19T17:13:00.003-05:00

Latest news from Port St Lucie is that Jerry Manuel is considering batting Jose Reyes third.
This is while Carlos Beltran would be injured

Manager Jerry Manuel said Friday that he might move Reyes to the third spot in the order from leadoff while outfielder Carlos Beltran is out after knee surgery. Either Angel Pagan, Beltran's likely replacement, or second baseman Luis Castillo would bat leadoff.
"I think he's ready for that if it's something we need," Manuel said, according to the Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. "This could be a part of his evolution as a player."
"I'm good with it," Reyes said, according to the New York Post. "I just want to be in the lineup."
Reyes said the order switch isn't a definite yet, however.
"He's not sure yet. We just talked about it a little bit yesterday," Reyes said, according the New York Daily News. "I said I'm open to anything you want me to do. It's not a problem."

Could Jerry Manuel actually be making a good move in batting Jose Reyes third? In their book, The Book, Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin and Mitchel Lichtman explored optimum lineup construction. They came up with this

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2, and #4 slots. Your fourth-and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slows will have more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

CHONE has Reyes projected as the third best Mets hitter (excluding Beltran). So, in an optimal lineup construction, he should hit fourth. But how would Reyes hitting third look in a Mets lineup? I used Lineup Analysis to find out how many runs the Mets would score. The OBP and SLG columns used projections from CHONE
The Lineup was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Bay, Wright, Murphy, Francoeur, Catchers (.318 OBP, .371 SLG), Pitcher (.176 OBP and .179 SLG)
This Lineup would score 4.66 RPG. The optimum lineup, scoring 4.888 RPG would be Wright, Bay, Catchers, Pagan, Reyes, Francoeur, Murphy, Pitcher, Castillo.

If you switch Castillo and Pagan, having Castillo lead off, you score 4.7 RPG; switch Castillo and Pagan, and Bay and Wright, you get 4.8 RPG. Switch Bay and Wright, you get 4.65 RPG.

And if Reyes doesn't bat third, and the lineup is Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Pagan, Francoeur, Catchers, Pitchers they'll score 4.66 RPG.

So if you're going to bat Reyes third, have Pagan lead off and Wright hit fifth, though it doesn't make that much difference if Wright bats fourth or fifth.
In the end, batting Reyes third or first is not going to make a difference to the Mets.

Mets trade Brian Stokes for Gary Matthews Jr

2010-01-23T06:39:00.003-05:00

Omar, just when I thought you lost the Contest. While Brian Stokes wasn't the best (his 3.97 ERA was really lucky, a 4.63 FIP and a 5.50 tRA) he certainly was better than Gary Matthews Jr. Since signing that 5/$50 million contract, Matthews Junior has been worth -1.1 WAR. Yeah, negative. He can't hit anymore (his wOBA has been .324, .303 and .313 the last 3 years). He'd be a perfectly good fourth outfielder except he can't field anymore (1, -9.3, -14.5 UZR the last 3 years). I know we're paying him $1 million this year and next, but what do we get for that $1 million? Or, more importantly, who could we have signed?
But what does Omar think of it?

"He's a very versatile player"

Is versatile another way of saying he can suck at left, right and center field?

"I felt just that with Carlos being out, it's an opportunity to get a guy that's versatile, and a guy that in our ballpark can play all outfield positions. I just feel that versatility is important"

we get it. He's versatile. He will save you .9 runs in right field. That's all we can play. Oops, I forgot, we have Frenchy!
And, if you're so commited to versatility, why did you sign Alex Cora, who can only play second?

"and to be able to get a guy like him on board -- with Carlos or without Carlos -- I think it just makes our team better."

How the #@^&$@*&(*!&#^%^#&%$@%^&#! does getting someone below replacement level make the Mets better? Explain that to me Omar?

"There's an opportunity for him to come into New York and hopefully be able to get more playing time, I think the key for him is going to be playing time."

The key for him is to get more playing time. So he can suck more? I mean, I'm not Jeff Francoeur's biggest fan, but I'd rather have him playing right field and center field than Gary Matthews Jr.

Matthews wanted to be traded to a team that would allow him to start, and the Mets, at least temporarily, can offer him that assurance
WHAT THE %*&$&@(^*%$(@*&%((**(&@&^@#^$&^*@$*&@$^&^!&*(!)*($*(&@^!#^
WHAT ARE YOU SAYING ANTHONY DiCOMO?

"I think it's going to be open competition," Minaya said of the center-field job. "That's the same thing that I told Gary Matthews Jr. when he asked that. Nobody's going to be given a job. Whoever performs is going to be given the opportunity."
Pheew. You had me worried there Omar. I thought you were actually going to give the center field job to Gary Matthews Jr. Even you aren't that dumb.
Oh yeah, I forgot. You traded Brian Bannister, who would be the Mets 2nd best pitcher right now for murderer Amborix Burgos.

Omar, the Angels were not on the approved trading list for Omar™. You are only allowed to trade with Dayton Moore, Brian Sabean, Ed Wade and Ned Colletti.
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*Head hits keyboard in frustration*

Jason Bay xBABIP projections

2010-01-16T06:55:00.000-05:00

Continuing with the series, I used the xBABIP calculator to normalize the luck for Jason Bay, and to determine what his offensive output will be using this xBABIP and Chone projections.

Jason has a .352 xBABIP over his career, which is 20 points higher than his average BABIP. If we use his .352 xBABIP, Jason will bat .297/.402/.550 (AVG/OBP/SLG) which is a great year. He will hit 34 homers, and have a .410 wOBA. He is projected to have 622 plate appearences. If we use his average BABIP, .332, he'll bat .283/.391/.535, with a .399 wOBA.
Using his CHONE projections (.267/.376/.514, .388 wOBA, .307 BABIP) on Fangraphs, he is prjected for 4 WAR.
Using his xBABIP calculations and an average of his defensive projections from CHONE and Jeff Zimmerman's projections at Beyond the Boxscore, Jason has a total of 50.2 RAR, which leads to a 5 WAR. I think that is a little too optimistic, and his projected total from Fangraphs is probably right, 4 WAR.
CHONE, xBABIP normalized and BABIP normalized projections here.

Carlos Beltran surgery, Mets FO messes up

2010-01-15T20:11:00.003-05:00

As you have probably heard, Carlos Beltran had surgery on his right knee, and should be out for 12 weeks before he can start baseball related activity. That means he is probably back around June 1. But what is more worrying is the complete idiocity shown by the Mets front office, yet again. In a development that rivals the Adam Rubin fiasco in terms of stupidity, the team say they wanted Beltran to have a third opinion to have the surgery. Of course, they determined this while he was having surgery. Beltran originally wanted to have surgery during the season, but the Mets didn't want him to, which can only be described as a blunder. He ended up playing in 19 meaningless games last year, and will know miss 2 months of an actual meaningful season (as it looks right now), when he could've had surgery earlier.
Beltran's agent, Scott Boras said that Beltran's personal doctor, Dt Steadman talked with the Mets team doctor, Dr Altcheck, who agreed Beltran should have surgery after pain in his knee was not going away. According to Boras, Dr Steadman was told that Dr Altcheck would tell the Mets.
The major blunder by the Mets was to make this feud public. It shows the Mets to be incompetent, again, and also insensitive. It also shows that the medical staff issues of last year have not gone away. Interestingly enough, it was John Ricco, the assistant GM who handled the Press conference. This can be read as the Mets hoping that the bad PR situation did not get any worse with Omar Minaya handling the press conference; they can remember the Adam Rubin fiasco as well.
Hopefully, Beltran gets well soon. It now looks like Angel Pagan will be the center fielder for 2 months. But while Beltran's loss is huge, it will be overshadowed by the Mets PR blunder. Seriously, what is Jay Horowitz up to?

Jason Bay signs for the Mets; will it be worth it in 5 years?

2010-01-05T06:48:00.004-05:00

So Jason Bay has finally ended the will he won't he by signing a 4 year $66 million dollar contract, with a $17 million dollar vesting option. Bay is a good offensive player, but is pretty awful at defense, though his numbers may be exaggerated a bit by Fenway. However, for him to worth, effectively the $83 million dollar contract, he'd have to worth about 2.5 WAR at least, going forward. And the problem with this is that Bay is not getting any younger; 31 this year, he'll be 36 at the end of the contract in 2014. And while I'm happy that the Mets got Bay, instead of going for the cheaper, worse option, I still think Omar somewhat overpaid him. Bay was not really wanted by any other teams, as the teams that were apparently interested in him, the Mariners and the Red Sox had both just made acquisitions (Bradley for the M's, Cameron for the Sox) that meant that they weren't interested in him anymore. Taking a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average of his WAR since 2005, Bay averages 3.1. He was 3.5 WAR last year, and using CHONE offensive predictions and Beyond the Boxscore's defensive predictions, he is worth 3.4 WAR, with a .385 wOBA. He'll be paid $15 million in 2010, and a 3.4 WAR would be worth $15.3 million. Hopefully, he can keep this level of production up, but if he declines this deal can be very very nasty for the Mets, especially as Bay is owed $16 million up to his final year. However, if he continues to average 3.1 WAR 2011+, that would add up to a 15.8 WAR, which would be worth $71.8 Million dollars total, at $4.5 million a win. I'm fine with that, and if thats the case, it could be a good signing by Omar.
Now, go out and sign Matt Holliday to play right. That would be awesome.

Chat about John Lackey and Jason Bay

2009-12-20T07:07:00.001-05:00

I spoke with Spencer (of this blog) about the Red Sox signing John Lackey (who wasn't interested in the Mets) and I added the obligatory Jason Bay question
Aidan:
John Lackey is described by the Mainstream Media to be a "Bulldog"
However, he has started 24 and 27 games the last 2 years and has suffered elbow and shoulder injuries. His deal was delayed because of a pre existing shoulder injury. How confident are you that the 5/$82.5 Million deal will turn out to be a good one?

Spencer:

The past couple years he has been less than healthy, and thats a risk we're taking. but he pitched at least 200 innings from 2003-2007 and has post-season experience (a 3.12 ERA). He looked fine at the end of last year and, along with Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, he can make up the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball.

Aidan:

Josh Beckett is a free agent at the end of the season. Will the Red Sox be able to resign him to a deal, where he could arguably get the same type of money as Lackey or even more? And if not, is that why they brought in John Lackey?

Spencer:

We brought in Lackey to supplement our staff now, and obviously we are going to try to negotiate with Beckett during this year. He has been our rock since 2007 and we're definitely going to want him for longer. BUT if his price is absurdly high, we would just let the Yankees get him. And we would still have Lester, Lackey, and Buccholz (not to mention dice-k)

Aidan:

Now, I have to ask the obvious Jason Bay question. Mike Cameron signed with the Red Sox on Wednesday, so it looks like Bay's time with the Sox is over. If he signs with the Mets (and we're front runners) do you think he will fit in, and is he better than Holliday?

Spencer:

Bay is a slightly better defender (.988 vs .980, 15 Assists vs 7 last year (Aidan: UZR liked Holliday a lot more than Bay)), but Holliday is a slightly better hitter, if not slugger (.318 career BA vs .280). Bay can hit for more power and he walks more as well. i think the Mets have decent speed with Reyes, Wright, and Beltran (Holliday runs more than Bay) so I think that Bay would fit in more. but really, don't you think you guys have enough stars to underachieve already?(Aidan: The idiots in the FO and management are the reasons we underachieve)

Molina tells the Mets 3 years, I hope Omar doesn't do it

2009-12-15T16:10:00.002-05:00

According to Ken Davidoff, Bengie Molina wants 3 years, citing deals given to Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez. I for one, hope that Omar does not meet his demands, and instead, signs either A, no one, or B, sign Rod Barajas.
Barajas had a 7.6 RAR (runs above replacement, used for WAR) and then add in his 4.2 Runs for defense (from Driveline Mechanics), which would make for 11.2 RAR, and then added to baserunning, which is -1.6, which is 9.6, which divided by 10 (10 runs per win) leads to a 1 WAR.
Molina was 18 RAR, but added to defense (-3.4) and terrible baserunning (-4.5!!!, one of the worst in the league) makes him at only 10.1 RAR, which is only 1 WAR, just like Barajas. If Barajas can be had for one year, $4 million, do it. Forget Molina.

The Mets think Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday. It's not a joke

2009-12-12T15:59:00.004-05:00

Yep, in another coup in the Mets FO, they believe that Jason Bay is better defensively than Matt Holliday.
"- Despite the numbers, they like him defensively over Holliday."
Source
How much do you want to bet that is because of this play:
Speaking of the numbers, Holliday is better than Bay in all the meanigful defensive stats (sorry, fielding percentage, and errors).
Holliday UZR vs Bay UZR, 2009
Holliday:5.7 (not to mention excellent 9.1 and 14.2 UZR's in 2007 and 08 in Coors Field)
Bay:-13
Holliday ZR vs Bay ZR, 2009
Holliday:17.148 ZR with STL, 11.658 with OAK, total of 13.341
Bay:11.255 ZR
ZR is zone rating: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive zone, the zone being measured by STATS, Inc.

Seriously. Holliday>Bay. And now that Holliday has been offered 8/$128m, I would forget Bay's contract, which is the same basically, and offer 6/$110 to Holliday. Maybe'll accept. But I'd rather have Holliday than Bay.

Glossary

2009-12-11T06:57:00.003-05:00

Here is a glossary of terms I will use. Click on the links. They help.
Offense
wOBA: Weighted On Base Average. It is a linear weights stat, on an On Base Percentage scale.
The formula:

(0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR) / PA

For more info, go here.

OBP: On base percentage. It is the percent of the time a player gets on base. Formula: H+BB+HBP/PA

SLG: Slugging percentage. Measures the player's power. Unlike the other stats, the highest slugging possible is 4.000. SLG=TB/AB

OPS: On Base Plus Slugging. OPS=OBP+SLG. It's simple.

OPS +: Adjusted OPS, it is park and league adjusted. 100 is average, below is below average, above is above average. OPS+=100*(OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG -1)

wRAA: weighted runs above average. Measure of batting runs above average, with 0 being league average. wRAA= (wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15*PA

BABIP: Batting average on Balls in Play. The name is self explanatory... This is not a skill stat however, it is a luck stat. League average is usually about .300, but if a player is above his usual average BABIP (David Wright, mid 2009) he's in for a bit of a decline as it stabilizes. BABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF). This is also applicable to pitchers.

WAR: Wins Above Replacement level. It takes offensive, defensive, replacement and positional level stats. Replacement level is a AAA lifer or a guy you can pick up for league minimum. A team full of replacement level players would have 48.6 Wins out of 162 games. I really suggest that you go here to learn more to understand WAR.

Pitching

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. This is a stat that measures pitchers on an ERA scale, without defensive interference. It's independent of defense. FIP=(13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K)/IP+ a league constant usually 3.2, to get FIP onto an ERA scale.

xFIP: Expected FIP. Replaces HR with flyballs to make it more independent of luck. ONe of the best future performance stats. xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP+league constant. Note: .11 is the league average HR/FB which is lgHR/lgFB

ERA: ER*9/IP. Next.

tRA: tRA, and tRA* are maybe the best pitching stats out there. On a run average scale, times by .92 to get to ERA. While I understand the numbers and how its calculated, I don't think I can understand it, so go here.

ERA+: Adjusted ERA. Park and league adjusted. ERA+= (lgERA/ ERA)*100. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average

tRA+: Adjusted tRA. Below 100 is below average, 100 average, above 100 is average. [((lgTRA - tRA) / lgTRA) + 1] * 100

WAR: There is WAR for pitchers. Go to fangraphs glossary to learn about it.

Defense

UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating. Runs saved above average, comapred to position, 0 average, 10 would be 10 runs above average. The primer is here, here and here. Click for a much better understanding.

If I start using a new stat, I'll add it here. This will be available as a link on the side of the blog.

Carlos Beltran season projection

2009-12-05T06:59:00.004-05:00

Again, using the xBABIP calculator, Carlos' xBABIP is an astounding .428, which is way above his career norm of .307, and above his Chone projected .295 BABIP. I am using Chone projections, by the way, because it has been proven that Chone projects better than any other projection.
Back to Beltran: I'm going to calculate 2 adjusted season lines for Beltran: One with his .428 xBABIP, and one with his .307 BABIP.
Beltran is predicted to have 118 Games, 454 AB's, 126 hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 21 HR's, 79 RBI's, and have a line of .278/.362/.485. The totals are low because it's based on previous years to find an average, and last year Beltran missed a lot of games. Adjusted to a .428 BABIP, his line becomes .335/.412/.559. His wOBA is .419, which leads to 40 wRAA. He has a projected 1 UZR, gets a 1.8 positional adjustment and gets 17 Replacement runs. This adds up to 59.8 Runs, which divided by 10 gives Carlos a 6 WAR season, which is amazing.
However if his BABIP is .307, he bats .286/.370/.496 with a .378 wOBA. This leads to a 21.5 wRAA, which changes his WAR to 4 WAR, which is good, but not 6 WAR great.
However, it is still extremely productive, and I think his line will be something like .300/.390/.520. Remember, 2011 is the end of his contract, and personally, if Beltran is healthy he should be resigned.

2010 Mets Projections, Right Field

2009-12-04T06:57:00.004-05:00

Sorry I haven't been writing recently, some stuff came up. This is a new series, where I will give some projections on the Mets for 2010, based on the CHONE projections. Today I am dealing with Jeff Francoeur.
Francoeur is projected to bat .270/.311/.421, in 596 AB's with 17 HR's and 84 RBI's . Because ~~a lot~~ all of his skill comes from his contact ability, BABIP is very important for him. So I looked at THT's xBABIP calculator, and based over his career, Francoeur should have a .310 BABIP. This is pretty close to his career of .307, and close to his projected chone BABIP of .300 (unfortunately, CHONE doesn't project Sac flies)
Seeing as his xBABIP is .310, that can change his slash stats, as he would now have about 166 hits instead of 161. An extra 5 hits would translate to (based on career norms) 4 singles and 1 double. That would change his slash stats to .297/.319/.431. His numbers lead to a .318 wOBA, which based on a .330 league average wOBA is -6.7 wRAA (to know what these mean, go here.) Then added to Beyond the Boxscore's projected UZR (fielding metric) of 2 runs, positional adjustement of -7.04 runs and his replacment level of 21.13 runs, we get a total of 9.39 Runs, which on the Runs to wins scale (10 Runs per win) leads to a .9 WAR. For more information on how this was computed, go to fangraphs.com, click on glossary and scroll down to wins above replacement.
.9 WAR, which on a $4.5 Million dollar per win scale means Francoeur is worth $4 million, which is about how much he's getting paid.
I'm all for giving Frenchy a chance, but if his BABIP is under .300, he's gonna suck majorly. I just hope Omar doesn't give him 3/36, like he did to Oliver Perez.
Next Up: Carlos Beltran.

Thankful

2009-11-26T14:23:00.002-05:00

We as sports fans have much to be thankful for. Aidan, Spencer and I have much to be thankful for as friends. As a die hard sports fan, I have seen moments that can bring people to tears. We are thankful for underdogs. What would the world be like if there wasn't a goliath to lose to david. If anyone wants to see this in action look up highlights for Michigan versus Appalachian St. in 2007. The Mountaineers became the first D-1 AA team to beat a D-1 A team in the top 5. To listen to the announcers from the Appalachian St. radio network scream as the Mountaineers blocked Michigan's field goal as time expired and see the players carry their coach off the field is one sight that everyone should see. We are thankful for those players who have the ability to do things we can't believe possible. Lebron, Kobe, Albert Pujols, Peyton Manning, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin,

trRA for hitters

2009-11-16T16:51:00.001-05:00

Ever since Voros McCracken's ground breaking work on DIPS, and luck, there has been debate on how much control pitchers and hitters have on luck. BABIP measures whether a player has been lucky or unlucky, and there are many defense independent stats. One of the better ones is tRA or true Run Average. As this article shows, it is based on batted ball data. This same idea can be applied to hitters, and there can even be a regression value. The formula for this stat would be like wOBA; number of batted balls*batted ball run value and add this to each hitter and then divide by plate appearences. Walks and strikeouts can also be added. Using the run values given in the article about tRA, I applied this to David Wright and the Majors. For David Wright it comes out to .126; some work might be required on this statistical measure, but personally I think it is a good way to evaluate hitters, and rewards them for what they hit, rather than the outcome.

Correlation, Part 6

2009-11-15T10:48:00.002-05:00

For a recap on Correlation and the rest of the series, go here.
Part 6 focuses on the correlation of wOBA to Runs. wOBA is weighted On Base Average, and is a linear weights stat on an On Base Percentage scale. Here is the formula, and some info.
The Correlation between Runs and wOBA was .93, so it has strong correlation. The R² is .87. This is by far the strongest correlation I've had in this study, and it is stronger than average, OBP and slugging, but strangely, not OPS.
The Graph: (Click to enlargen)

My Plan for 2010

2009-11-15T10:14:00.004-05:00

On Amazin Avenue there is a contest for off season plan. I posted a plan, and I'm going to repost it here. The budget has to be about $150 million dollars, and trades and signings have to be realistic.
The Plan: (Courtesy of amazinavenue.com)

Outfield

Matt Holliday for 5 years/$100 million, $20 Million a year. This is probably the easiest move to make, as we know the Mets need power, and Holliday is the best player available. Also, what's nice is that Holliday's salary is only $8 million more than what came off the books when Delgado declared free agency. For the rest of the outfield, Angel Pagan gets re upped for about $650,000. Jeff Francoeur will get resigned for $4 million for 2010, and will face arbitration in 2011. The Mets will also sign Endy Chavez for $1 million (he's $1 million due to the injury).

Catcher

Trade Ruben Tejada and Eddie Kunz for Chris Snyder. Snyder makes $4.75 Million in 2010 and $5.75 million in 2011. and Omir Santos is the backup, for $500,000. Santos is actually a pretty good defender, according to Driveline Mechanics, worth 2.4 runs, with Snyder being worth -3. Josh Thole goes in AAA, but comes up in 2010.

First Base and Second Base

The Mets make this 3 way trade that's being reported, with Castillo going to Chicago, Bradley going to Toronto and Lyle Overbay going to the Mets. He will make $7 Million in 2010, and is a free agent in 2011. Nick Evans will be the backup first baseman, with Daniel Murphy tries to become the Mark DeRosa type, and learn how to play second base, as a backup. Overbay is actually a pretty decent fielder despite his -.6 UZR in 2009. Before that though, he had a 2.9 UZR in 2008 and 3.9 in 2007. Bill James predicts a .354 wOBA for 2010, a slight decrease from 2009, but hopefully his good defense would return. Ike Davis will be the starting first baseman in 2011.

For Second base, the Mets will sign Placido Polanco for 2 years/$10 million. Polanco has great defense (11.4 UZR!), and is also a former Philly, which puts up his Grission factor. His wOBA is projected to be .325, which is a little less than Felipe Lopez's .333, who was the other contender for the position. However, Polanco's defense makes him more valuable than Lopez, who also has pretty good defense, just not as good as Polanco's.

Wilson Valdez will be signed to a $400,000 contract for defense.

Starting Pitching

Starting pitching is a tricky one. I feel Mike Pelfrey's ERA will bounce back in 2010, making fans love him again and proclaim his as the number 2. With the better defense at Short and second, he'll probably give up less hits. Meanwhile, the pitching market is kind of bleh. But with the Red slashing payroll, the Mets can make a deal for Aaron Harang. I would trade Kirk Niuwenhuis and Parnell for Harang, who will make $12.5 million in 2010 and 2011. After Santana, Pelfrey and Harang, the Mets have Niese, Maine and Perez. Another option would be to sign Rich Harden for 1 year/$8 million with incentives.

Relief Pitching

BB-Rod as closer. Green, Socks!, Feliciano as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Sign Kiko Calero for 2 years/$4 million. Perez can be a long man if he sucks in the rotation, or loses out. John Maine could also go into the bullpen if he doesn't make the rotation. Other options for the 'pen include Adam Bostick as the second lefty.

Payroll

The total is 153.05 for this year and 151.65 next year (in millions). If this is a problem, I can make a few adjustments.

Name	2010 in millions	2011 in millions
Snyder	4.75	5.75
Santos	.5	Free Agent
Thole	.4	.4
Overbay	7	Free Agent
Davis	In AAA	.4
Evans	.4	.4
Murphy	.4	.4
Polanco	5	5
Reyes	9	11 (option)
Wright	10	14
Valdez	.4	.4
Holliday	20	20
Beltran	18.5	18.5
Francoeur	4	4.5
Pagan	.65	.7
Chavez	1	2.5
Santana	21	22.5
Harang	12.5	12.75 option
Pelfrey	.5	.65 (arb)
Maine	2.3	2.5
Perez	12	12
Niese	.4	.4
Harden	8	Free Agent
Rodriguez	11.5	11.5
Stokes	.45	.45
Feliciano	2	2
Green	.5	.55
Calero	2	2
Bostick	.4	.4
Total	$153.05 Million	$151.65 Million

Correlation, Part 5

2009-11-09T06:52:00.002-05:00

For an explanation of Correlation, go here and for the other parts, go here.
This is the correlation of Babip to Runs: BABIP is batting average on balls in play: it shows you the percent of the time you get a hit when the ball is put in play (Home runs are excluded.)
The correlation was .57 (remember 1 is the best) and the R^2 was .33, which shows the percent of variance.
The equation of the line of regression (or best fit) was f(x)=0x+.23 (in the y=mx+b model)
Click to make larger

Round Up

2009-11-08T06:49:00.002-05:00

I haven't posted in a while. The combination of a Yankees-Phillies World Series (I watched 3 innings of the whole thing), and the fact that there hasn't been a lot of Mets news lead to a lack of posts. However, I'm going to do a round up:

Ike Davis went 1/2 with a single and groundout in yesterday's Arizona Fall League rising stars. According to Adam Rubin's list for BA, Ike is the Mets 4th prospect, with Wilmer Flores 3rd. I disagree, I see Davis with more potential right now (I know, Flores is 18), and I would put him 3rd.
In regard to starting pitching: I do not think the Mets should sign John Lackey. He's a bit of an injury risk, and for the money he's going to get, I don't think he's worth it. If it came between Holliday and Lackey, I'd choose Holliday. Also, just because Mike Pelfrey's ERA jumped up a run, does not mean he can be a "number 2 or number 3" pitcher. His ERA went up because he's a groundball pitcher and the Mets sucked at defense this year.The Mets were the worst team in the NL, and the second worst in the Majors, with a UZR of -47.3 (that's 4.7 wins by the way), and a UZR/150 of -7.3. ERA is a bad way at evaluating pitchers; tRA, tRA*, FIP and xFIP are all better.
Depending on how much Randy Wolf would cost, I'd say he's a better option then Lackey. Also, the Mets could make one year offers to both Bedard and Harder with incentives based on innings.

More later.

Jenry Mejia Pitch F/x

2009-10-27T06:40:00.002-04:00

Mejia pitched yesterday for the Suprise Rafters, and didn't do that bad, going 3 innings giving up 4 hits, a walk, a run while striking out 3 in a 2-1 loss to the Peoria Javelinas.
Pitch F/x

Jenry Mejia, 10/26/09
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Max Speed	Pitch Fx_x	Pitch FX_Z	Count	Strikes / %	Swinging Strikes / %
FF (FourSeam Fastball)	93.99	97.6	-6.18	5.58	37	22 / 59.46%	4 / 10.81%
CH (Changeup)	87.17	88.1	-9.71	3.52	9	7 / 77.78%	3 / 33.33%
CU (Curveball)	77.50	80.2	2.81	-8.18	5	2 / 40.00%	0 / 0.00%
FT (TwoSeam Fastball)	87.75	88.7	-10.93	5.17	2	2 / 100.00%	1 / 50.00%

His fastball has some pretty good sink on it, as Sam Page at Amazin Avenue pointed out in a post a while back. His Curveball also has some insane movement, but he only threw 5 so not much can be read into that, and his changeup has some sink too. He had 14.3% Swinging Strikes.

Met Prospects Pitch F/X

2009-10-24T07:06:00.004-04:00

So, if you haven't heard, there are several Mets playing in the Arizona Fall League, on the Surprise Rafters. The Arizona Fall League also has Pitch F/X data, which is what you see on gameday.
It is explained here and here.
The last game that we have Pitch F/x data from (from Brooks Baseball) is October 22, where Josh Stinson went 1 inning, giving up 1 hit, and striking out 1. Stinson is a 21 year old right hander who had a 1.98 ERA in Port St Lucie.
His Pitch F/x data:

Josh Stinson, 10/22/09
Pitch Type	Avg Speed	Avg Pf_x(Horizontal Break)	Avg Pf_z (vertical break_
Fastball (4 seam)	91.07	-6.41	7.94
Changeup	84.75	-9.52	6.75
Slider	82.90	1.99	1.61
Curveball	77.97	6.85	-5.23
2-seam Fastball	89.90	-7.98	5.54

Information gotten from Brooks Baseball, which is an awesome site.
Negative values on horizontal break means the pitch is in to righties, and positive values mean it's in to lefties. 1.99 mean's it's fairly down the middle of the plate.
Stinson threw 13 fastballs, 3 curves, 2 changeups and 1 slider and 2 seam fastball.
So, his fastball breaks inside to righties, his curveball breaks inside and down to lefties, and low and away from righties, which seems to make it a good out pitch.

What the 2009 Mets could've been

2009-10-17T14:25:00.001-04:00

Seeing as Omar and Jerry are staying, I wanted another good reason to have them fired. So, I decided to project the Mets win total in 2009 if no one was injured. I used Wins Above Replacement, which can be found at www.fangraphs.com. There were a couple of rules: Players who had had injuries last year that forced them miss significant time (10 games+ in one stretch) could get injured this year. Thus, Carlos Delgado, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz all get injured in this year's version along with Ryan Church and Angel Pagan. Also, if a player was called up due to injury, and would not get called up unless in September does not appear. (Sucks for you, Argenis Reyes). Also, I am going by 4.5 PA/G for starters. wOBA stays the same for hitters, as does UZR.
For pitchers, I used the guide that fangraphs has. So, a pitcher's FIP (fielding Independent Pitching) is divided by .92 to convert it to a scale with Run Average. It is then divided by the Park Factor to normalize it (I think...). I used ESPN's Park Factors, which was .94 for Citi Field. Also, for the league RA FIP, I used 4.53, the NL RA.
So, the 2009 New York Mets, who do not lose Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Johan Santana finish 82-80. Feeling proud, Omar and Jerry?
Carlos Beltran has an awesome year, with a 6.5 WAR. David Wright has a 4 WAR. Because Fernando Nieve doesn't start, he gets 15 appearences out of the pen, 30 innings (2 per G) and has a war of 3.5. I know, it's fantasy, but I was just going by what I got, so bear with me.
Billy Wagner does not get traded for Chris Carter, and appears in 15 games. Ramon Castro still gets traded, Angel Pagan doesn't play in as many games, and Cory Sullivan doesn't play at all. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey each have 33 starts, Tim Redding gets 20, Nelson Figueroa gets 19 starts.
I know this isn't the most accurate way of figuring out what the Mets could've been, but it wasn't extremely hard, and still paints the main picture: The Mets are a .500 team, and Omar Minaya did not give this team enough starting pitching depth, and the starting pitching wasn't good enough. It also shows that this team needs a good offensive outfielder and first baseman, as we knew about. What I'm mainly trying to say here is that the Mets bad season this year was not just due to injury; it was also due to lack of good starting pitching, starting pitching depth, and the need for an outfielder who is good offensively.
Update: The spreadsheet

Correlation, Part 4

2009-10-16T12:50:00.003-04:00

This is the correlation of Isolated Power to Runs
For a explanation of correlation, go here.
Isolated Power is Slugging Percentage-batting average, and measures a player's true power
The correlation between Isolated Power and Runs is .66, just below the cut off mark of .7 for strong correlation.
The R squared is .43, and the equation is f(x)=0x+0.03
And here is the graph: (click to make bigger)

Correlation Part 3

2009-10-12T08:23:00.004-04:00

The 3rd part, this shows the correlation of BB/K (walk/to strikeout ratio, offensively) with runs.
For an explanation of correlation go here.
The correlation of BB/K to runs is .37. The r squared is .14. There isn't that much correlation.
The equation is f(x)=0x+.2
Here is the graph:

Click to make bigger

Correlation, Part 2

2009-10-07T16:44:00.005-04:00

For this part, I am focusing on K%, again from the years 2004-2008. For a recap of part one and an explanation of correlation, go here.
K% doesn't have any correlation, with a correlation of .02, and an R^2 of 0. This indicates that there is no correlation.
Here is the graph:
Click to make larger.
The equation (in slope-intercept form) is f(x)=0x+18.68.

Did I Not Say Figgy was Pretty Good

2009-10-04T16:45:00.001-04:00

If only he could've done this in 2007. Or 2008. Oh well, congrats to Nelson as he pitches the second complete game shut out of the season for the Mets. The other one was Pat Misch. That sums up the season.
Adieu, 2009.

Correlation, Part One

2009-10-02T16:56:00.005-04:00

The first part of a 10 part series, I'm following on this great post to The Hardball Times by Dan Fox. I'm going to follow with different stats, however: BB%, K%, BB/K, BABIP (batting average on balls in play), Isolated Power (Slugging-average), weighted Runs Created and weighted Runs Above Average and weighted On Base Average (see fangraphs for those 3), home run/Fly ball percentage, and line drive percentage.
I'm seeing which one correlates with run scoring the most;
correlation runs from -1 to 1
-1 indicates that a high value in one is a low value in the other; 0 means that there is no correlation, and 1 is perfect correlation. The cut off for good correlation is .7, because the R^2 is .49, which is half, which is acceptable. (R^2 is correlation squared).
My data is from 2005-2008; I may redo it with 2009 data as well.
The Correlation between runs and walk percentage is .41 which is an R^2 of .16. It's not strong, so walk percentage does not relate well with scoring runs.
The equation of the line of regression (line of best fit) is y=0.01x+3.96 (it's in the mold of the slope-intercept form: y-mx+b)

Click to make bigger

Grission T-Shirt

2009-10-01T15:50:00.002-04:00

The Case for Nelson Figueroa

2009-09-27T07:16:00.003-04:00

After Nelson Figueroa's last start, a 7 inning effort where he gave up 2 runs, his ERA was at 4.88. His FIP was at 4.67, and his tRA was at 6.07. However, since Johan Santana's last star on August 20th, and his subsequent end of season surgery, Figueroa has had a 3.45 FIP, in 35 and a third innings. He has struck out 32, walked 13, and given up 3 homers (and a 4.08 ERA). Maybe it's too small of a sample size, but with reports this week about Tim Redding coming back next year, I think the Mets should make a cheaper move, and sign Figueroa. He would probably make the Major League minimum, and would definately be better than Redding, who this year has a 5.19 FIP and a 5.39 tRA. He has a 5.31 FIP since August 20th (again, small sample size).
So, I think Figueroa is better, and I hope Omar does too. He may be 35 years old, but he will make major league minimum, and is better than Redding. Make the right move, Omar.

Mets Lose 11-3

2009-09-22T07:00:00.001-04:00

Pat Misch went 1.1 innings and gave up 8 runs (including 4 homers)
Lance Broadway went 1.2 innings and gave up 3 runs
Tobi Stoner went 2 scoreless
Daniel Murphy hit home run #11, and now is the team leader
Only 12 left

Mets win Series, now have 65 wins

2009-09-21T06:36:00.002-04:00

Only 5 more guys, just 5 more to 70.
The Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 6-2, and clinched fourth place. They actually beat a team worse than them.
John Maine had a good outing, 5 innings giving up 2 hits, walking one and striking out one. HE threw 75 pitches in 5 innings (pitch count). Brian Stokes made it look like he doesn't want to be on the team next year, as he gave up 2 runs in .2 of an inning, meaning Blow-Rod had to come in for his 33rd "save".
Offensively, Pagan, Murphy and Beltran all had good days, and Josh Thole went 1/2 with 2 walks and 1 RBI.
The Mets just need to go 5-7 to reach 70 wins.
Pat Misch (1-3 4.21 ERA 5.21 FIP 6.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.53 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.34 tRA)
as the Mets face the Braves.
By the way Mark Sanchez is pretty good. Maybe he could pitch for us during football's offseason.

Championship

2009-09-20T21:42:00.004-04:00

Aidan, I'm just putting this here so that I can link to it from the fantasy baseball page.

Why Jeff Francoeur for 3 years is a bad idea

2009-09-20T08:01:00.002-04:00

According to mets.com (Marty Noble) the Mets want to sign Francoeur for 3 years.
Here's the quote:
"The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform -- from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals."
I won't even go over the "Beau Brummel" part (should Frenchy's cleats be coated with the champagne from 2007 that Willie Randolph never got to use?). How about the fact, that even if Francoeur look's good he still sucks. Sure, he's hitting .280. You know what his OBP is? .309. Cannon arm? Yeah, he has a good arm. He sucks at the rest of defence though, according to UZR. If he has such a great arm, make him a pitcher. Then he has value as a hitter.
You want a 3 year contract, Noble? For a guy who has been worth -9.1 runs? He has been worse offensively than an average hitter. The track record is against him. He has the worst plate discipline on the team, swinging at 35% of pitches outside the strikezone. He is not good at baseball. You know who's better, and cheaper? Bobby Abreu. So, for once, Omar/Wilpons/who ever is the GM, make the right effing decision. Because if we sign Francoeur for 3 years, I'm done.

Big Game Redding; METS WINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

2009-09-20T07:25:00.002-04:00

Yep, Big Game Redding. Why not? I mean, if Scott Boras can pull it off with a 4.68 FIP pitcher, why can't Redding's agent? In 213 innings against National League East opponents, Redding has a 4.35 ERA. Against the Phillies he has a 3.01 ERA. Against the National League East, Redding has about a 4.77 FIP. Sign him up. 3 yrs/$36 Million. He only pitches against the NL East.
And he had a good start yesterday against a team that is 9th in runs (we're 11th), second in OBP, 6th in OPS, and 6th in wOBA. Redding went 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 of them earned), striking out 4, walking 2. He had an 8.2 swinging strike%. mets.com called it a "gritty start". I'm not sure what was gritty about it (his beard?), but it was a good start, and he's been our second best pitcher since Johan went down. Yes, that's sad. The best: Nelson Figueroa.
Offensively, it was Jeff Francoeur's day; The gritty right fielder went 2/4 with 2 runs and an rbi. He doubled in the second, and scored on Murphy's single; he doubled in Wright in the 8th; and he scored later that inning on an error by Nats first baseman (who is also an awesome hitter who the Met should've signed, he'd have 40 homers even in this place) Adam Dunn. Francisco Rodriguez decided to become a good pitcher again, and got his 32nd "save" and struck out 2. According to Marty Noble, the Mets are going to sign Francoeur to a 3 year contract extension. You know where I'm going with this? Marty Noble lobby for Francoeur contract extension.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur RBI double in 8th. +.145 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Nats, 1:10 PM
John Maine (5-5 4.45 ERA 4.84 FIP 5.74 tRA) takes on
Garret Mock (3-8 5.89 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.53 tRA)

Fire Omar?

2009-09-19T12:01:00.003-04:00

Aidan, I know you're upset. But seriously, could anyone have predicted the extent of these injuries? The Mets have lost practically all of their decent players. Those injuries had nothing to do with management. Maybe Frankie blew a few saves, but really, all closers do that. And it makes sense for a manager to go to his $37 million investment. After spending that much money on someone, you can't not use him in the only situation where he would be used. This season was lost for the Mets, but it was not the fault of Jerry or Omar. I don't really know why I'm defending them, but maybe it's because you hate on them incessantly.
Just for the record, Boston is 7 up in the Wild Card.

Only 14 more

2009-09-19T07:04:00.002-04:00

Yep, only 14 left. These Mets have started the 17 game stretch like the 2007 version did, losing the first 3. The Mets are 6th right now in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. The Mets now need to go .500 to win 70 games. It's not happening. FIRE OMAR.
Mike Pelfrey wasn't very good, going 7 innings giving up 5 runs, 4 of them earned. He gave up 2 homers, (both 2 run homers), and had a 4.44% swinging strikes. Pelfrey needs to do better to show that he can be a consistent #2 starter. John Maine could be a better option then Pelfrey and now replaces Bobby Parnell in the rotation.
The Mets got something going in the 9th, scoring 3 runs off of closer Mike MacDougal. Wright singled in a run with the bases loaded, Beltran hit into a run scoring fielder's choice, and then an error by their shortstop led to it being 6-5, with runners on second and third. But Francoeur grounded out. By the way, Francouer saw 16 pitches in 5 at bats, which is lower than his average of 3.38.
Tim Redding (2-6 5.52 ERA 5.28 FIP 5.50 tRA) takes on
John Lannan (9-11 4.08 ERA 4.91 FIP 5.63 tRA)
1:10 PM ET, Citi Field.

Seriously. DOES ANYONE CARE?

2009-09-18T06:51:00.002-04:00

I don't that much anymore, but the Mets lost 7-3. Nelson Figueroa was pretty bad, going 5 innings and giving up 6 runs. Tobi Stoner went 3 innings and gave up 1 run. START STONER!
Offensively, the Mets didn't do much, Fernando Tatis singled in 2 runs in the fourth and Daniel Murphy hit a homer in the 8th.
The Mets now play the Nationals.
Mike Pelfrey takes on JD Martin

Blow-Rod, and Murphy

2009-09-17T06:57:00.002-04:00

The Mets were so close to a win on Wednesday night. They went up 3-0, but the Braves came back against Bobby Parnell, who was bad again. It was 4-4 in the eighth, when Jerry made the questionable move to pinch hit Omir "Short Swing" Santos against the left hander. Well, luckily for the Mets, and Jerry, Santos hit a go ahead home run off of Mike Gonzalez. Blow-Rod came in the 9th, and gave up a dobule to Garret Anderson, and then hit McCann. Escobar sacrificed the runners over, and then LaRoche was intentionally walked to set up the double play. Omar Infante hit the game tying sacrifice fly to make it 5-5. Then Ryan Church hit a grounder that Daniel Murphy attempted to do his best Bill Buckner impression. Of course, it bounced off his glove, and the game was over. It's easy to blame Daniel Murphy for this, but Blow-Rod just hasn;t been good for us this year. Maybe he's injured, or maybe he's just crap, or maybe's he crap and injured and overpiad. (I say the latter).
Bobby Parnell had a bad outing again, going 3.1, giving up 3 run, walking 3 and striking out 4. He actually had a swinging stike percentage of 13.3%. Josh Tholewas awesome, going 2/4 with 2 RBI's. Josh Thole is awesome.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Blow-Rod. Jerry, I know everyone else was used, but he stinks. He just flat out stinks, and I would not use him anymore.
Random Thought of the Day: Maybe Francoeur would be better than Blow Rod at pitching?
Clutch Play of the Game: Santos homer in the 8th. +.265 WPA.

6-0 Braves

2009-09-16T06:39:00.002-04:00

The only reason to watch Mets games now is Josh Thole and Daniel Murphy (and when he plays, Jerry, Nick Evans). Yesterday, Thole went 1/3 with a walk, and now has a .409/.417/.455 line with a OPS of .871. Nick Evans got a pinch hit appearance, and fouled out. The Mets got 3 hits and 3 walks off of a very impressive Tommy Hanson, who struck out 8 (11.6% swinging strike!). Daniel Murphy had 2 hits, and is batting .260/.310/.406 for a .716 OPS. As late as May 9th he was at .308/.369/.473, but it kind of went down hill, though he did have an okay August. Pat Misch was pretty bad for the seconsd start in a row, going 5 innings, giving up 4 runs and not striking out anyone. Elmer Dessens and Brian Stokes gave up single runs.
Jeff Francoeur saw 10 pitches in 4 plate appearences and has an OBP of .303. Ryan Church has an OBP of .339, and also leads Francoeur in batting average, .274 to .273. But not slugging, but he does win in OPS. 3/4 for Church. By the way, there are 17 games left in the season, and the only thing we can blow is our draft pick. But that would involve winning.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I don't think Jerry could change this game.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Braves, 7 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-8 5.49 ERA 4.27 FIP 4.39 tRA) takes on
Derek Lowe (14-9 4.47 ERA 3.78 FIP 4.33 tRA)

Vintage Pedro, Mets lose 1-0

2009-09-14T06:44:00.002-04:00

Pedro is still Pedro; he went 8 innings, striking out 7, walking 2 and giving up 6 hits. Even though it's our offense, it still has Luis Castillo, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran in it, and those 3 went a combined 2/9 with 2 walks. Tim Redding pitched pretty well for the Mets, going 6 innings, and limiting the potent Phillies offense to 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks. He struck out 3. The offense was pretty bad, only getting one hit off of Madson in the 9th. Anderson Hernandez and Brian Schnedier both had multi hit games. Read that again. The 2 best hitters was Hernandez and Schneider. That's sad.
The Mets have been eliminated from the National League East, and the National League Wild Card, so guys, there is not comeback.
Stupid Decision of the Day: This one is gonna go to Charlie Manuel for letting Pedro pitch for 130 pitches. Pretty damn dumb, Charlie.
Random Thought of the Day: Jerry, please start playing Thole, Evans, and every other young guy called up more regularly now. It makes it more interesting.
Clutch Play of the Game: Wright double in 6th. +.097 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
Offday, then series with Atlanta.
Brian Schnedier Line: .203/.279/.323. Up from .195/.274/.318

Mets come up Short, lose 5-4

2009-09-13T17:36:00.003-04:00

In his return, John Maine went 3 innings, giving up 1 run on 2 hits, 1 walk and struck out 2. With a pitch count of 60, he made it through 3, with 57 pitches. He only had 3 swinging strikes for a 5.3%. Again, he really struggles in innings. If he had no pitch count, it would've been a typical Maine start, going 5 innings.
Tobi Stoner and Lance Broadway did not impress with Broadway giving up a key run in the 8th.
Josh Thole went 4 for 4 with an RBI single. Anderson Hernandez hit a 2 run homer in the 8th (second of the year and career), and the Mets got something going in the 9th, against Brad Lidge. However it would not be enough despite the efforts of Francoeur, Thole and Reed.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Going to Broadway in the 8th. Why get another inning out of him, Jerry? He sucks, it's 4-2, bring in someone to get 3 outs.
Clutch Play of the Game: Hernandez 2 run homer in the 7th. +.063 WPA.
More later on Game 2 of the double header.

David Wright Awesome, Mike Pelfrey not so much

2009-09-13T07:12:00.002-04:00

I guess Pelfrey entered the Citizens Bank Park marathon. After going 6 innings, giving up 8 runs on 3 homers, 10 hits and a walk, Pelfrey decided to go running. He had a 7.3% swinging strike percentage. So, despite the Mets scoring 4 runs in the first, he left with the Mets in a 8-4 hole.
It was 9-5 in the 8th, when Tatis doubled, and then David Wright decided to have some payback on Brett Myers, and homered. Daniel Murphy's single scored Beltran to make it 9-8. However in the eighth, Sean Green and Pedro Feliciano loaded the bases. No worry though, as Feliciano struck out Howard to end the inning. In the 9th Tatis singled with 2 outs, and then Wright hit another homer to make it 10-9. In the bottom of the 9th, K-Rod went 1,2,3 on the Phillies, striking out 2 to get his 31st save. This game does show what might've been; The Phillies are still going to win the division, but its nice to win this game. Mets elimination number is 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Using Takahashi against the lefties. He gave up 2 hits, a run and got his out on a fly out. He faced 3 lefties; this year lefties are batting .311/.407/.511. JERRY DO YOU READ THE STAT HANDOUTS THEY GIVE YOU? Elmer Dessens holds lefties to .188/.286/.354 line. And he wasn't used yesterday.
Random Thought of the Day: Beltran, Tatis, and Wright went a combined 10/15 with 3 homers, 8 rbi's, 8 runs, and 20 total bases. That's a .667/.667/1.333 line. For a 2.000 OPS. Pretty damn good.
Clutch Play of the Game: David Wright 2 run homer. +.723 WPA (72%!!!!)
Up Next for the Mets: Doubleheader, 1:05 PM and 8:05 PM
John Maine (5-4 4.52 ERA 4.95 FIP 5.88 tRA) pitches in the first game against
Kyle Kendrick (0-1 5.06 ERA 4.40 FIP 7.47 tRA).
Tim Redding (2-5 5.78 ERA 5.42 FIP 5.54 tRA) pitches in the second game against
Pedro Martinez (4-0 3.64 ERA 3.96 FIP 4.96 tRA)

Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™

2009-09-12T07:45:00.002-04:00

Team WPCT
Nats .348
Pirates .388
Royals .397
Orioles .407
Indians .429
D-Backs .437
METS .440 13 Games back on Nats
Padres .444
Reds .447
A's .450

Almost there guys, just need to shoot for number 5 only 1.5 back!!

Failcoeur: Lose 4-2

2009-09-12T06:47:00.002-04:00

This is what was said when the Mets got Jeff Francoeur: "Francoeur, 25, is known across the league for his defense in right field. He won a Gold Glove Award in 2007 and has more assists than any other big league outfielder since he made his Major League debut in July 2005."
Example One: Great Throw.
Example Two: Great Tracking.
Defense, huh? And there are other examples. Like when he drops the ball in Washington. And ran away from the ball in Washington. Not that it would've mattered anyway. But, Francoeur was also got for his offense! Okay, he went 3/4 yesterday. That's great. He also saw 11 pitches in 4 at bats. Excellent.
Nelson Figueroa struggled through 5.1 innings, walking 5, striking out 3, and giving up 9 hits, but only letting 2 score. Brian Stokes and Elmer Dessens also gave up runs (though the run Stokes gave up is thanks to the second Francoeur play). I have a feeling that the wet conditions led to the control problems. Only 6% of his pitches were swinging strikes.
The Mets got 9 hits and a walk off of Cole Hamels, but only got 1 run. They had a chance in the 9th, but Jerry's favorite Cory Sullivan hit into a double play (it did plate the run) that basically killed the rally. More than a rally killing home run.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pagan bunting in the 7th. Pagan is the second or third best hitter in the lineup. You don't want him bunting. You want Jeremy Reed, Nick Evans, Francoeur or Santos bunting, if you have to bunt. It acutally decreases our run scoring, Jerry from 1.49 innings to 1.41. And guess what, we scored one run in the inning. FAIL.
Random Thought of the Day: I'm gonna go out there and say Jerry has a bunting fetish.
Clutch Play of the Game: Sullivan single in 7th. +.094 WPA
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets at Phillies, 4:10 PM
Mike Pelfrey (10-10 4.83 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.82 tRA) takes on 78 year old
Jamie Moyer (12-9 4.98 ERA 5.10 FIP 5.70 tRA)

Awful Bullpen, lose 13-4

2009-09-11T06:53:00.003-04:00

The Mets got swept by the Marlins (remember it's September), losing the finale 13-4. It was really closer than that, being 5-2 in the fourth, and 6-4 in the sixth. However, Sean Green, Pedro Feliciano and Lance Broadway proceeded to give up 4 runs in 3 combined innings, to make the game a blow out. Broadway really hasn't been good, though he has been unlucky, having a 2.45 FIP. Bobby Parnell was pretty bad, going 5 and giving up 6, walking 4 and striking out 6, and he did have 10.6% swinging strike percentage. Tobi Stoner made his major league debut, and pitched a scoreless inning.
The Mets scored in the fourth on a Nick Evans single, and Omir Santos sac fly. In the fifth, Wright hit an RBI fielder's choice, and Tatis hit a single.
Really, the Mets sucked, and the bright spot was that Evans had an RBI single.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis single in 5th, to make it 6-4. +.104 WPA
Up Next For the Mets
Mets at Phillies, 7:05 PM
Nelson Figueroa (2-4 4.74 ERA 4.71 FIP 6.05 tRA)
Cole Choker Hamels (8-9 4.32 ERA 3.84 FIP 4.52 tRA)

Misch=really not that good; lose 6-3

2009-09-10T06:49:00.003-04:00

Well, that last start should end the Pat Misch is the number 5 starter for the Mets next year. Because if he is something has gone horribly wrong. He actually isn't that good. He has a low swinging strike percentage (3.8% from tonight's game), he doesn't strike many out (2 tonight), and he doesn't have great control, as he walks almost as many as he strikes out (1.12 K/BB Ratio). He also doesn't get that many groundballs either. And tonight, he gave up 2 home runs, as the Marlins have now hit 4 in 2 games in this series. The Mets got 3 in the 7th, on a Murphy double, Francoeur sac fly and Tatis ground out. Misch went 6, gave up 5 runs, Lance Broadway gave up 1 run in 1 inning, and Sean Green went 1 and Elmer Dessens went 2 scoreless.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Having Tatis pinch hit for Thole in the 7th. Tatis grounded out, anyway, Thole could've done that. Jerry, I don't know if you read the stats they give you, but Thole is almost just as good against lefties as he is against righties. Give him a chance Jerry, insted of your favorite .260/.325 hitter Tatis.
Random Thought of the Day: Wow, Jerry must really hate Nick Evans. What did he do, run over Jerry's dog?
Clutch Play of the game: Murphy double in 7th, +.054 WPA
Up next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Bobby Parnell (3-7 5.25 ERA 4.12 FIP 4.29 tRA) takes on
Sean West (6-5 4.61 ERA 4.61 FIP 4.88 tRA)

Beltran back, Mets lose 4-2

2009-09-09T06:54:00.002-04:00

The return of Carlos Beltran did not result in a dramatic homerun, though he came close in the 7th. Instead it resulted in a Mets loss. Tim Redding was his pretty usual self, going 5 innings, walking4 striking out 4, giving 4 runs on 2 homers. Only 2.9% of his pitches were swinging strikes, which is pretty damn awful. The bullpen (Elmer Dessens, Sean Green, Ken Takahasi, Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes) combined to go 4 scorless. The Mets scored on a Josh Thole sac fly (he went 0/3) for his first RBI, and a Luis Castillo infield single after Angel Pagan tripled. The Mets had the bases loaded in the 7th but Wright struck out, and Beltran flied out (just missed a grand slam), and the inning was over, and the Mets went quietly in the 8th and 9th.
Stupid Decision of the Game: Jerry wanting Pagan bunting in the 7th with 1st and 2nd, no one out. It's not the right call, Jerry, and Pagan let 2 strikes go by before flying out. Kudos to him for not bunting.
Random Thought of the Day: Well, this is the strongest lineup we have.
Clutch Play of the Game: Ross dp in second, +.108 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM
Pat Misch (1-1 3.25 ERA 4.58 FIP 5.68 tRA) looks for his second win. He faces
Ricky Nolasco (10-8 5.27 ERA 3.55 FIP 4.34 tRA)

Mets to Call up Tobi Stoner; Pre game vs Marlins

2009-09-08T16:51:00.002-04:00

As reported here.
Stoner, 24 was 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA, 4.19 FIP and a 4.45 tRA in Buffalo this year. This translates to (per baseball prospectus) a 4.87 DERA, and a 4.99 FIP. Hey, he can't be worse than Oliver Perez, right?
Up Next for the Mets
Mets vs Marlins, 7:10 PM, Citi Field
Tim Redding (2-4 5.70 ERA 5.21 FIP 5.33 tRA) makes his 13th start. He faces
Rick VandenHurk (2-2 4.91 ERA 5.78 FIP 6.09 tRA)

More on Murphy

2009-09-07T11:40:00.004-04:00

I was looking at Daniel Murphy's stats, and noticed how he has a BABIP 100 points lower than last year's (.386-.286). So, using this (password is tuftsbat if you use it), I attempted to find out where Murphy's babip should be. It is expected to be .298 for this year, so he really should have about 117 hits for a .274 batting average. This would also increase his OBP to .324. To determine his slugging is a little more difficult. To do his, I have to figure out the percentage of hits that are doubles and triples. 26% of his hits are doubles, and 2.7% of his hits are triples. (Because a home run is not ball in play on a playing field, there is no increase in homers). So, if I round, 2 of his extra 6 hits are doubles, and there are no extra triples. So 4 hits are singles, and 2 are doubles. This gives him approximately 181 total bases, which gives him a slugging percentage of .423.
Murphy also had a lucky year last year, where he had a BABIP of .386. His xBABIP was .340, so he should've had 34 hits. That would've meant his average was .260, with a OBP of .351. 22% of his hits were doubles, and 7.3% of his hits were triples. That means he would've had 8 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 21 singles. That is a slugging percentage of .412.
Daniel Murphy's actual stats:

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	27	9	3	2	18	28	1	62
2009	473	428	70	29	3	9	35	62	0	173

avg	obp	slg	ops	Ops+	wOBA
.313	.393	.473	.871	129	.373
.259	.311	.404	.716	87	.309

OPS + is a stat that is adjusted for park and league. 100 is average, above 100 is above average, below 100 is below average (129 is 29% better than average)

Daniel Murphy's xBABIP stats

Year	PA	AB	1b	2b	3b	HR	bb	k	hbp	tb
2008	151	131	21	8	3	2	18	28	1	54
2009	473	428	74	31	3	9	35	62	0	181

avg	obp	slg	ops	Ops+	wOBA
.260	.351	.412	.763	112	.345
.274	.324	.423	.747	108	.323

Note: OPS+ used ESPN Park factors for Shea Stdium (.946) and Citi Field (.941)

All in all Daniel Murphy would be a perfectly adequate bench player/utility guy, if he can play second base. A Mark DeRosa type.

Murph: Win 4-2

2009-09-07T07:35:00.003-04:00

If the Mets hadn't gotten all their injuries, this would've been a series to be proud of. Win 2 out of 3 against the struggling Cubs, knocking them out of the Wild Card race, and getting a dominant start from Mike Pelfrey, and good hitting from Daniel Murphy. But, alas, we're not in contention, but we should still be proud of the fact that we won a series. Yep, we won our first series since July, and it was against a team over .500. Despite the fact that Mike Pelfrey only had a swinging strike % of 7.6, he gave up 1 run, on 5 hits, a walk, and he struck out 5. He got 10 groundouts and 9 flyouts. It's these kind of starts that make you think the Pelfrey can be a number 2 starter, and really he's been the same as last year. The difference: Alex Cora and co playing Short instead of Jose Reyes, and also a really sucky outfield defense.
Daniel Murphy was the star offensive performer, going 3/4 with a homer and 4 rbi's. He was a double shy of the cycle, and he raised his batting line to .255/.311/.404, and his OPS to .715. While much has been made of Murphy's downfall from last year, he does have an .286 BABIP, which is below average.
Frankie Rodrgiuez came on in the 9th for the save, and had to make it interesting with 2 outs, walking Baker and then giving up a double to Soto, but he got Fukodome to ground out to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pinch hitting Schneider with Tatis. Playing the rightie lefty splits is stupid when you're in the lead in the 8th inning.
Random Thought of the Day: Why can't Josh Thole play back to back games? And, Jerry you play Schneider instead of him?
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy 2 run triple in the 7th. +.151WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets have 10th pick, 1.5 back (ahead) of Cleveland for 5th.
Brian Schneider Line: .195/.274/.318. Up from .185/.267/.311.
Up Next for the Mets: off day, then series with Marlins.

It wouldn't of lasted; Lose 5-3

2009-09-06T07:11:00.004-04:00

In yesterday's game, Nelson Figueroa struck out 8 Cubs (bringing his total to 18 against them), gave up 7 hits and 2 walks in the 6 innings, and got 14.95% swinging strikes. However, he also gave up 4 runs, both on 2 run homers. The Mets struck out 10 times against Rich Harden in 5 innings, and 13 times overall. Harden had a 22.5% swinging strikes. Cory Sullivan hit another home run (power surge!) and now has a .287/.368/.455. He has a wOBA (weighted On Base average, stat that gives a value to everything in runs, and divides by Plate appearances, it's on a On Base Percentage scale) of .366 (average is .325). Josh Thole went 2/4, so he's now batting .444/.444/.556 for a 1.000 OPS and a .463 wOBA. He also hasn't swung at a pitch outside the strike zone yet, showing great plate discipline. (Frenchy, take notes) Luis Castillo went 2/5, and is now batting .311, with more importantly, an OBP of .400, which is good for 11th in the National League and 16th in all of Major League Baseball. David Wright went 1/4 with a sac fly, but also struck out a hat trick of times. He now has 113 strikeouts, and is on pace for 137.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Well, the fact that the Mets left 10 on is not Jerry's fault.
Random Thought of the Day: Nick Evans only pinch hits. C'mon Jerry, play him. Please.
Clutch Play of the Game: Pagan single in 7th. +.121 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets:
Mets vs Cubs 1:10 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (9-10 5.03 ERA 4.29 FIP 4.97 tRA)
Randy Wells (10-7 2.90 ERA 3.83 FIP 4.49 tRA)

Back to Back wins: Win 6-2

2009-09-05T07:21:00.002-04:00

When Brian Stokes came in the 8th inning, and his first batter, Milton Bradley hit a pop up that Francoeur and Pagan failed to catch, you thought it was all over. Bradley came in to score later in that inning, making it 1-1, meaning there would be no win for Bobby Parnell despite the right hander's 7 scoreless, striking out 7, walking 3 and giving up 5 hits. 11% of his pitches were swinging strikes, which is 4% above average. He loaded the bases with none out in the 7th, but struck out Mike Fontenot, Kosuke Fukodome and got his glove in front of a Ryan Theriot lined shot. Overall he pitched pretty well, but it's only his second good start.
The Mets scored in the second when Cory Sullivan homered. Then in the 8th, with the score tied 1-1, Castillo singled to lead off the inning, Wright singled moving Castillo to third, then Tatis (pinch hitting for Murphy) singled in Castillo. A wild pitch moved runners to second and third, and Francoeur was intentionally walked. Sullivan then singled to left to make it 3-1, then Santos hit a chopper over the drawn in infield to make it 5-1. Anderson Hernandez singled to make it 6-1, but then Stokes was out bunting runners to second and third, and then Pagan struck out and Castillo grounder out to end the inning. The Cubs had the bases loaded in the 9th, causing Blow-Rod to come in, but he got the job done, getting Ramirez to pop out, and striking out Jake Fox for his 29th save.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I was planning on making a big thing about how pinch hitting Murphy with Tatis was dumb, but then Tatis singled, so I didn't have to.
Random Thought of the Day: This home run by Sullivan means he starts for the next week, doesn't it. Why is Nick Evans in Jerry's doghouse?
Clutch Play of the Game: Wright single in 8th moving Castillo to third. +.175 WPA.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: With the win it means the Mets now have the 10th pick, but only 2 back (ahead) of the A's for 5th pick, 7 back (ahead) of the Pirates for third pick, and are 15 back (ahead) of the Nats for number one, which is probably out of reach.
Up Next for the Mets: Cubs at Mets. 1:10 PM
Nelson Figueroa (2-3 4.50 ERA 4.52 FIP 6.14 tRA) takes on
Rich Harden (8-8 4.19 ERA 4.44 FIP 5.05 tRA)

It's all Thole: Win 8-3

2009-09-04T06:46:00.002-04:00

The Mets have finally found their future catcher. While Josh Thole will not be a Mike Piazza, he can still be an effective hitter. He went 2/5 yesterday with a steal, as he singled in his first major league at bat. His line stands at .400/.400/.600. He also showed what he could on the defensive side, committing one passed ball, and calling a great game. Yes, I am saying that Pat Misch's second good start is the result of Josh Thole. Misch went 7 inning, gave up 2 runs, both on homers, struck out 3 and walked 2, for his first Major League win. Despite not getting many strikeouts, he did miss some bats, with a swinging strike percentage of 7.4%, just below the major league average. The homers were back to back, and came in his last inning; Misch did a good job of keeping the Rockies off of the bases, giving up 6 hits and the 2 walks. If he continues to pitch like this, I see no harm in letting him try for the number 5 spot in the rotation next year. Every Met position player had a hit; Thole, Murphy and Hernandez had 2; Wright and Pagan had 3. Wright had 3 rbi's wearing a normal helmet; Murphy had 2, both on his 2 run homer in the 9th. Pagan had an rbi and scored twice. All in all a good day for the New York Mets.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I give Jerry a thumbs up for this performance. Though it was all Thole.
Random Thought of the Day: Knowing the Mets, Thole won't play for another week.
Clutch Play of the Game:Wright 2 run double in 5th. +.125 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Back to Citi Field against the Cubs, 7:10 PM.
Bobby Parnell (3-7 5.81 ERA 4.32 FIP 4.53 tRA) makes another start.
Carlos Zambrano (7-6 3.91 ERA 3.89 FIP 4.61 tRA) pitches for the Cubs.

Offense Sucks, as Does Stokes:Lose 5-2

2009-09-03T06:31:00.002-04:00

Remember guys its September, so the bullpen is bad, the offense is bad, I used that line yesterday, didn't I? Well, Tim Redding was good for the second consecutive start, going 6.2, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits (one of them a homer) and a walk, and striking out 6. Brian Stokes, however was not good, getting one out, walking 3 (one intentional), giving up 3 hits, and 3 runs. The Mets had to turn to K-Rod to end the inning, and he did, getting Carlos Gonzalez to pop out to third, and striking out Seth Smith. Stokes was bad for the second time in 3 outing, hopefully though this doesn't change Jerry's use of him, just because there isn't anyone better (except Feliciano), and he's cheep, so should be considered for next year because he's somewhat decent. The fatal blow was driven in by Jason Giambi, with a 2 run single that made it 4-2; then Yorvit Torrealba singled to make it 5-2. In the 9th, the Mets went down quietly against Franklin Morales (who proved that anyone can be a closer). In fact the Mets could only muster 5 hits and a walk against Ubaldo Jimenez in 8 innings, and 2 runs, one of them coming on a Francoeur homer, the other coming on a Murphy sac fly in the first (an inning where Francoeur hit into an inning ending double play; he saw 10 pitches in 4 at bats).
Stupid Decision of the Day: Nothing. Can't blame Jerry.
Random Thought of the Day: Thole makes his debut tomorrow.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur homer. +.116 WPA
Brian Schneider Line: .185/.267/.311
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Rockies, 3:10 PM
Pat Misch (0-1 3.41 ERA 4.05 FIP 5.72 tRA) makes his second start. He faces
Jason Marquis (14-9 3.60 ERA 3.98 FIP 4.80 tRA)

Mets chances at winning last 30 games

2009-09-02T20:12:00.003-04:00

So to see what the Mets chances of winning the next 30 games are, I used a stat made by Bill James called log-5, and the strength of schedule concept from football. From the Mets next 30 games (against the Rockies, Cubs, Braves, Nats, Marlins, Astros and Phillies) the total wins and losses for those teams are 4630-460. That works out to a .502 winning percentage. As of today the Mets have a .447 winning percentage. The log5 method is:

             A - A * B
 WPct = ----------------- where A is Team a's winning percentage and B is team B's winning percentage.

        A + B - 2 * A * B

The Mets will be team A, and the opponents team B. This comes out to .445 or 44.5%. That means we have a 44.5% chance of winning those games. That means over the last 30 games we would go 13-17. Which is pretty good considering our team, and we would be 72-90. However, I don't think we will, seeing as the Opponents winning percentage is brought down by the Nationals horrible record, and our's is brought up by our good record at the beginning of the year.
Still, 13 wins will see us to 72, and I guess thats the goal.

It is September: Lose 8-3

2009-09-02T06:33:00.002-04:00

Mets fans remember that it is September, so the Mets are going to have games like this. Games where Mike Pelfrey is absolutely horrible, walks in a run (as does Sean Green. I mean, Jason Giambi? He had a .334 OBP! .364 slugging. Come on!). Where Mike Pelfrey also hangs pitches for Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez to homer on. Where Lance Broadway pitches better than Mike Pelfrey. Yep. it's that time of year.
The Mets scored 2 in the first, and could've scored more. Pagan singled, and Castillo looked to single to right field. However, Pagan who was running on the pitch was completely fooled by Troy Tulowitzki who convinced Pagan that the ball was caught. So, after rounding second, he turned, went past second and was forced out at second. I have no idea what Luis Alicea and Razor Shines were doing, but shouldn't they be telling Pagan to stay at second. Shouldn't Pagan also be looking at the flight of the ball, and Castillo, as he is rounding second to go back to first? David Wright then singled, and Francoeur brought in Castillo with a sac fly. Tatis doubled in Wright, Evans walked, but Santos struck out. The Mets would've scored at least once more, if Pagan hadn't been stupid. The Mets scored again in the 7th when they got back to back triples from Sullivan and Pagan, but it was too late, as Mike Pelfrey would go 4, give up 7 runs (6 earned), on 6 hits and 5 walks. He would strike out 4.
Stupid Decision of the Day: The Pagan play. For reasons stated above.
Random Thought of the Day: It would be so much more interesting to see Thole play every day instead of Santos.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.091 WPA
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are 8th. 5.5 back (ahead) of Pittsburgh for 3rd pick. 2 back (ahead) of the Padres for 5th.
Up Next for The Mets: Mets at Rockies 8:40 PM
Tim Redding (2-4 5.94 ERA 5.34 FIP 5.36 tRA) takes on
Ubaldo Jimenez (12-10 3.33 ERA 3.35 FIP 4.31 tRA)

Thole Called Up

2009-09-01T07:05:00.002-04:00

Josh Thole will be called up when rosters expand. He will wear number 30.
Well now, at least we don't need to worry about him and the Rule V Draft.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Rockies, 8:40 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (9-9 4.80 ERA 4.10 FIP 4.81 tRA) takes on
Jorge De la Rosa (12-9 4.72 ERA 4.08 FIP 5.23 tRA)

By the way, this is the 100th post of Mets MD. Hopefully the Mets will win, on our 100th post day (?).

Major League Roundup 8/31/09

2009-09-01T06:49:00.002-04:00

The White Sox traded Jim Thome to the Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the Rockies. The Dodgers acquired Jon Garland from the Diamondbacks. The Giants signed Brad Penny.
Play off implication game
Braves 5, Marlins 2
Braves come back in 7th and 8th to beat Marlins; Kawakami out duels Johnson
Braves 3 back in Wild Card, 7.5 back of Phillies in the AL East
Rays 11, Tigers 7
Rays split the 4 game set with the Tigers. They are 5 back in the Wild Card as they start a key 3 game set with the Red Sox in Tampa.
Pitching Performance of the Night
Andy Pettite, NYY
8 IP 2 H 1 R 8 K, W
Hitting Performance of the Night
Adam Lind, Tor
3/5, 3 R, 8 RBI's
Honorable mention: The whole Toronto team

Mets record

2009-08-31T08:18:00.002-04:00

To find this out, I'm going to use a stat called WAR or Wins Above Replacement. It is explained here. A team full of replacement level players would have a .300 Winning Percentage.
The Mets batting and Fielding WAR is 7.7. The pitching WAR is 7.9. After 133 games (how many the Mets have played) a .300 WP would mean a team had a record of 40-93. (rounded). So the Mets have 15.6 Wins Above Replacement. Added to 40 gives the Mets 56 wins, which is pretty damn close to what they have (59). So, I'm not saying they should have 56 wins, I'm saying that is what the talent level on this team is.

Who has been the best since Johan went down?

2009-08-31T08:12:00.003-04:00

Using FIP (fielding independent pitching, it is on an ERA scale), the best has been Nelson Figueroa, and the worst has been Ollie, and Parnell. Note, these are from all starts following Santana's last start.
Here is the link.

Figgy! Win, 4-1

2009-08-31T06:57:00.002-04:00

We have found the ace of the staff. Please step up, Nelson Figueroa. Figueroa went 7 innings, scattering 6 hits, walked 2 and struck out a career high 10. His only iffy inning was the first, where he walked Bradley, gave up a single to Lee, and then a run scoring single to Ramirez. But, he struck out the last 2 to get out of the jam (he struck out the side in the 1st). He had 12 swinging strikes out of 117 pitches for 10.2%. Swinging strike percentage has a linear relationship with strikeout rate, and can indicate future performance. The league average for pitchers is 7.8%.
Every Met starter had a hit (including Figgy, who went 1/3). The Mets scored 2 in the third when Pagan singled, Castillo singled, Murphy singled to score Pagan, and then Francoeur singled to score Castillo. In the fourth, the Mets scored 2 when Schneider singled, and then Anderson Hernandez tripled. Figueroa then helped out his own cause by singling in Hernandez, through a drawn in infield. Brian Stokes came on in the 8th, gave up a single, but then got Lee to hit into a double play, and got Ramirez to pop up. Nice comeback from Brian. Frankie Rodriguez came in, gave up a single, got a fielder's choice, runner went to second on a wild pitch, but then struck out Fontenot and got Soto to pop up to Hernandez for Rodriguez's 28th save. Not that that matters.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Jerry saying he's going to platoon Thole. Not smart. As proven on an earlier post.
Random Thought of the Day: Why does Jeremy Reed get to play, Jerry? Why not Evans? He's up anyway.
Clutch Play of the Game: Hernandez triple in the fourth. +.141 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Off day, then go to Colardo to face the Rockies on September 1.
Brian Schneider Line: .189/.272/.318. The Day before it was .188/.273/.319. So it went down.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets have the 9th pick, tied for 10th. 3.5 back (ahead) of the Padres for 5th.

Another Great move by Jerry

2009-08-30T19:29:00.002-04:00

Mets won today, recap later
But some news: Jerry Manuel is going to platoon Josh Thole when he is up. He'll only face righties. BTW, it's pronounced toll-ee.
Josh Thole vs righties: .328/.396/.437/.833
Josh Thole vs lefties: .328/.391/.388/.779
granted they are MiLB stats

Omir Santos vs lefties:
.234/.268/.377/.645
congrats, Jerry

130 down, 32 to go. Lose 11-4

2009-08-30T07:00:00.004-04:00

The Positives: 4 hitters had 2 hit games, Francoeur and Schneider knocked in a pair each with doubles, Bobby Parnell an 8/4 groundout-flyout ratio. He also had 10 swinging strikes out of 109 pitches.
The Negatives: Parnell gave up 8 runs in 4.2 innings. Lance Broadway gave up 2 in 3 (he did strike out 3 and walk 1). There were 3 players who went o-fer. The Mets only got 2 walks. Aaron Heilman shut us down in 2 innings.

Parnell has been pretty bad recently. Since being a starter, in 21 innings he has given up 29 hits, 10 walks, 24 runs, 4 homers. He has struck out 14. For those following at home, that is a 10.29 ERA, and a 5.77 FIP (so something says he's been unlucky). He should continue to make his last 6 starts, because the Mets have no one better. But, next year, I would stick him in the bullpen. He's much better there.

The Brian Schnedier Line: .188/.273/.319. Up from .179/.267/.307
Stupid Decision of the Day: Nothing. But the next time we face a lefty, I want Evans to play.
Random Thought of the Day: Where is Nick Evans? In Jerry's doghouse? He has just been a pinch hitter since he came up.
Clutch Play of the Game: Schneider double in the fourth. +.171 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Cubs, 2:20 ET
Nelson Figueroa (1-3 5.40 ERA 5.37 FIP 6.98 tRA) takes on
Carlos Zambrano (7-5 3.80 ERA 3.95 FIP 4.63 tRA)
Bruce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are tied for 8th. 2.5 back (ahead) of the Padres, for 5th. You can do it guys. You can win.

Oh Stokes. Lose 5-2

2009-08-29T06:54:00.004-04:00

Usually when the bullpen lows the game this year, Brian Stokes is not involved and/or did not come into the game. But in fact, Stokes did the blowing, though Jerry did not help. After giving up a double to Milton Bradley, a Derek Lee flyout moved Bradley to third. Jerry then moved the infield in. This decision backfired as Ramirez singled just past Wilson Valdez at short. If Valdez had been playing back, maybe Bradley doesn't score; even if he does, there are two outs. Baker then walked, and then bad pitch calling by Santos/dugout meant Stokes hung a curveball for Soriano to jack out of the park. Elmer Dessens came in to finish the inning, but the damage was done, and the good work that Pat Misch had done was all gone. Misch didn't strike out a lot (2 and one was Tedy Lilly), but he was effective in keeping Cubs of the bases, and runs of the socreboard. He only gave up 6 hits, and he walked 2. He got 9 ground outs, and 9 flyouts, and deserves another start (other options: Lance Broadway ugghh and Dessens ughh). Also, he could probably be effective at Citi Field if he gets 9 flyouts; the big outfield should make it easier for flyballs to be caught. The Cubs got on the board first, in the first, but the Mets tied it up in the second, when Francoeur doubled, Tatis singled him to third, and the Santos hit a pop up that Bradley dropped at his shoetops. It was called a hit, and Francoeur scored. The Mets could've scored more but Sullivan lined out to Baker, Valdez grounded out and Misch struck out. The Mets got the lead in the 8th, when Pagan doubled, and Castillo bunted him to third. I had a problem with this, but I'll discuss later. Murphy walked, Francoeur struck out, but Tatis doubled off the ivy, as Pagan scored. Murphy was thrown out at the plate, which was dumb, so the inning was over. The Mets went quietly in the 9th, despite Santos' walk.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Jerry having Castillo bunt Pagan over. Not only does it give the Bus an out they don't deserve, but it also lowers the Run Expectation for the inning:
Before: Runner at second, none out:1.14103
After: Runner at Third, one out: 0.96654
It also lowers the Win Expectancy from 54.17% t0 50%. And not only that, Castillo is your best hitter. He is the best player at getting on base (.404 OBP). So you shouldn't be bunting with him. Murphy walked, s0 if Castillo had gotten on base (via a walk, infield single or run scoring single) the bases could be loaded. Pagan would've socred on Tatis' double anyway. So, unless it's the pitcher, or the bottom of the 9th, no bunting Jerry.
Random Thought of the Day: I really hope this rumor that the Wilpons have to sell is true. If it is, I propose the fans own the team, and every year there is an election for President, who represents the club.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis double. +.179 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: mets at Cubs, 4:10 PM ET (FOX)
Bobby Parnell (3-6 5.08 ERA 4.17 FIP 4.21 tRA) tries to make it 3 quality starts in a row. He'll face
Ryan Dempster (7-7 4.07 ERA 4.23 FIP 4.99 tRA)
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: We're now the #9 pick!!!! Only 5 back (ahead) of Baltimore for #3. We can do it guys! Bryce Harper here we come!!!

Fixing the Mets, Part 4

2009-08-28T08:46:00.001-04:00

Outfield
Seeing as Carlos Beltran could miss a lot of next year with recovery from micro fracture surgery, the Mets will need to find someone to play centerfield. Angel Pagan, despite filling in nicely, has just a .335 OBP (though he does have a .492 slugging). One thing that worries me about Pagan is his .327 BABIP, which is well above the .302 league average, and above his career norm, .310. That might have to do with his 17.0% Line Drive%, or his 43.6% Groundball percentage (because he's fast, he can get infield singles). However, seeing as he has a 5.6 IFH%, I don't think that's it. Pagan is a useful Endy Chavez type 4th outfielder, who could get exposed playing every day for 162 games. One option is Matt Murton, who has just been DFA'ed by the Rockies. Murton is a career .287/.353/.438 hitter, and would be a better option offensively than Francoeur. Free agents that could be cheap for 2010 include Xavier Nady, Mike Cameron and Rick Ankiel. Nady would provide a little better league average offense, and could be had for $7 million, due to the fact he is coming back from injury. Jason Bay could also be signed, but seeing as he is coming off of a 4 year, $18.5 million dollar contract, he would most likely cost money the Wilpons could not afford. It would be interesting to see if the Mets could trade for Carl Crawford, seeing as he is a free agent after the 2010 season. Crawford makes $10 million next year, and would be worth it. Another free agent after 2010 who I would love to sign is Adam Dunn. He should've been signed before this year, and despite bad defense makes up for it by posting .900 OPS and hitting 40 homers consitently. He would provide the Mets with power, somthing they need. Also, someone who will be in the Majors and should be prodcuing by 2011 is Fernando Martinez. In fact, he might be starting in 2010. Another player is Jeff Francoeur, though he will be payed $5 million next year. I am going to go out on a limb and say they could sign Francoeur to platoon him, seeing as he hits lefties very well, to a tune of .292/.335/.476, a 102 point increase on his OPS against righties. However I do not want Francoeur over Murton especially seeing as Murton will be much cheaper than Francoeur, and better.
Outfield: 2010
LF: Murton
CF: Beltran/Pagan (If Beltran is out for a while)
RF: Nady, 1 year/$7 million
OF:Pagan and Fernando Martinez
Outfield 2011
LF: Dunn
CF:Beltran
RF: Murton
OF: Pagan and F-Mart.
Depending on how well Martinez does in 2010 could make it so that the Mets do not need to sign Dunn for 2011.

Tim Redding=Ace...Daniel Murphy=Slugger

2009-08-28T07:51:00.002-04:00

The Mets finally ended their 5 game winning streak on Thursday with a resounding 10-3 win over the Florida Marlins. Tim Redding pitched well for the second time since coming back in the rotation, going 6.2 giving up 3 runs, striking out 5, and walking 2. The Mets scored 10 runs. 10.
And this was the lineup:
Pagan
Valdez
Murphy
Francoeur
Sullivan
Tatis
Santos
Hernandez
Redding
Only 3 had above league averages in OBP. Only one had an above average slugging (Pagan for christ sakes). And yet this group of players scored 10 runs off of Anibal Sanchez and co. Sometimes you have to wonder what could've been if the core didn't get injured.
All of the 8 position players had multi-hit games, and Elias, I want to know the last time that happened for the Mets. For christ sakes, Anderson Hernandez had 3 hits! Tatis and Pagan hit homers.
Big Performers: Pagan, 2/4 3 runs 2 bb, Murphy 2/5 3 rbi's, Valdez 2/5 2 runs 1 bb, Tatis 2/5 2 runs, HR, Hernandez 3/4 bb 2 runs.
Stupid Decision of the Day: I do wonder about going to Feliciano in the 8th when we had an 8-3 lead. He's already pitched in 70 games this year, and is on pace for 89, don't you want to rest him?
Random Thought of the Day: Does Nick Evans start soon? Hopefully against the left handed Ted Lilly he does.
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy RBI double in second. +.106 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets start a 3 game series with Chicago.
Mets at Cubs, 2:20 PM ET
Pat Misch (0-1, 4.09 ERA 4.26 FIP 6.14 tRA) will try to pitch better than Oliver Perez.
Ted Lilly (9-8 3.40 ERA 4.01 FIP 4.61 tRA) goes for Chicago.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are still 10th.

Perez out for season, lose 5-3

2009-08-27T07:07:00.003-04:00

They're dropping like flies! In this week alone we have seen Francoeur, Santana and Perez injured, with the latter 2 out for the year. We have seen Putz get shut down. Forgive me if I missed someone. So, Oliver Perez is out for the year with ~~a hurt ego~~ for surgery to fix his patellar tendon tendinosis. Whatever that is.
The Mets scored twice in the second with a Tatis double and Hernandez single, but Mike Pelfrey was not that good, and gave up 2 in the third on a Cody Ross triple, another 2 in the fifth on a Ronny Paulino homer, and one more in the 6th. He went 5.2, walked 5, struck out 2 (one of them the pitcher), and gave up 5 runs. It was not an ace of the staff moment. The Mets scored one in the 6th to make it 4-3, when Sullivan hit a sac fly, after Murphy doubled and went to third on a wild picth, but that was that, and the Mets would not score again. Apparently Sheffield is hurt again. With back spasms. Excellent.
Stupid Decision of the Day: We're not even stupid anymore.
Random Thought of the Day: It all ends October 4th
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis RBI double +.120 WPA
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes™: Mets are still 10th. But, only 3.5 back (ahead) of San Diego, who are 5th.
Up Next for the Mets: Finale, 1:10 PM ET
Tim Redding (1-4, 6.10 ERA 5.08 FIP 5.17 tRA) will try and end the Mets 5 game losing streak. He faces
Anibal Sanchez (2-4 4.97 ERA 4.72 FIP 5.38 tRA)

Mets Offense and Defense Fail, lose 2-1

2009-08-26T07:51:00.002-04:00

Maybe the Mets feel they can win this way:
Because, right now, thats the only way the Mets will win. Nelson Figueroa, starting in place of Johan Santana, was pretty good; going 5 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs (one earned), striking out 2. He only went 5, I assume to the same pitch count that Redding was on. Sean Green loaded the bases, but escaped, and K-Rod came in the 8th, and walked one, but did strike out 2. Sean West went 6 innings, giving up 1 run despite the Mets having 9 baserunners. Well, the Mets left 9 on. They managed 1 hit and 1 walk against the Marlins bullpen in 3 innings, and both came against the same person. The Mets scored when Tatis drove in Francoeur, after he had doubled. The Mets had the bases loaded, and one out in the 5th, but Francoeur fouled out to first, and Tatis struck out. Anderson Hernandez had some bad defense that led to the second Marlins run. So in honor of him, this is what you get when you type "Anderson Hernandez fail" on google images.
Luis Ayala. By the way, one of the results from "Fernando Tatis fail" is Benny Agbayani. Interesting. Nick Evans has been called up, by the way!!! Finally.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Pagan getting caught stealing in the seventh. The break even point is 70%, meaning Pagan has to be a 70% base stealer. This year Pagan is 11/17, meaning a 64.7% success rate. So, he shouldn't of run.
Random Thought of the Day: As Oliver Perez might miss Friday's start (hurt ego) our rotation is now Figueroa, Pelfrey, Redding, Misch, Parnell.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis RBI single in 4th. +.114 WPA.
Up Next for the Mets: Mets at Marlins, 7:10 PM ET
Mike Pelfrey (9-8, 4.67 ERA 3.97 FIP 4.60 tRA) makes his first start as ace of the staff. He faces the Marlins ace,
Josh Johnson (12-3 2.99 ERA 3.15 FIP 3.43 tRA)

PS Livan Hernandez has been signed by the Nationals. He will throw a no hitter against our lineup.

The Races

2009-08-25T21:23:00.006-04:00

I'm really bored so I'm going to write a post. Does anyone actually read this, or is it just a place for Aidan to vent?
Edit, Aidan G: People read this.
Edit, Spencer R: Alright, who?

AL East:
The Damn Yankees have run away with this one, and they are now 7 games ahead of the Red Sox. But what did you expect, having shelled out $423.5 million in the offseason. The Sox have one more series with the Yanks at the end of September, but unless anything major (i.e. a big winning streak for Boston coupled with a big losing streak from New York), this series will be all but meaningless in the East race.
Key Series: September 25-27 at New York

AL Central:
What happened to the Central being the strongest division? Its leader, the Detroit Tigers, are 66-58 but still 3.5 games up on the Chicago White Sox. The winning percentage alone of these teams makes the Central the weakest division in the majors. The Minnesota Twins are 4.5 games behind the Tigers, making this an intriguing, 3-way race. Even so, it's quite a leap from last year for the Tigers, who finished in last place in 2008.
Key Series: September 28-October 1 vs. Minnesota, October 2-4 vs. Chicago

AL West:
The Los Angeles Angels are 5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers for the lead, and they have the second-best record in the majors. Then it's Seattle, which is 11 games behind.
Key Series: September 28-October 1 vs. Texas

AL Wild Card:
There are 3 teams really in contention here: The Boston Red Sox, the Texas Rangers, and the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox are in first, the Rangers are 1.5 games behind and the Rays are 3 games behind.
Key Series: Boston vs. Tampa Bay September 11-13, Texas vs. Tampa Bay September 25-27

NL East:
No question. The reigning champ Philadelphia is going to win the division again. They are 7 games up on the Atlanta Braves for 1st place. Also, the Phils have a very easy schedule going forward, no Cardinals or Dodgers. Don't count out the Marlins either, they're just a game back of the Braves.
Key Series: September 18-20 at Atlanta.
PS. The Mets are not even worth mentioning here

NL Central:
Somehow the St. Louis Cardinals ran away with this one. Oh yeah, the addition of Matt Holliday probably helped. And having Chris Carpenter healthy and dominant. And the fact that the Cubs have crashed and burned majorly. The Cardinals are 8 games up on them.
Key Series: really none, but Sept 18-20 vs. Chicago

NL West:
Intriguing race here. The LA Dodgers started out the season on fire, but have cooled off a bit recently. The Colorado Rockies have done the opposite, heating up since the ASG and tightening the race to 3 games. If the Rocks keep this up, this could go down to the wire. The Giants are also 7 games back of LA.
Key Series: Oct 2-4 vs. Colorado, and right now vs. Colorado

NL Wild Card:
This is a 4-team spread, with the Rockies in first, the San Francisco Giants 4 games back, Atlanta 4.5 games back, and Florida 5.5 behind. This could go anyway, given the Colorado's second-half surge, but also the Giants' superior starting pitching.
Key Series: Colorado vs. SF Sept. 28-30 and Oct. 14-16. Atlanta vs. Florida Sept 30-Oct 3

Poor Mets

2009-08-25T21:23:00.004-04:00

I feel genuinely bad for them. I really do. All those damn injuries...
Carlos Beltran
Alex Cora
Carlos Delgado
John Maine
Fernando Martinez
Ramon Martinez
Jon Niese
Fernando Nieve
J.J. Putz
Jose Reyes
Johan Santana
David Wright
Bold equals Pivotal

Out of all of these guys, the only ones who have a chance to return this season are Beltran, Maine, both Martinezes, Nieve, Putz, and possibly Wright. I hope they feel better next season.
Edit, Aidan G. : Just learned from WFAN that Putz is shut down for the year. I don't think Maine is coming back, and I seriously hope Beltran and Wright don't come back.

Billy Wagner traded to Sox

2009-08-25T18:12:00.003-04:00

He's been traded to the Red Sox will decline his $8 million option, but they will offer arbitration, meaning they will get a draft pick. The Mets will get 2 players to be named later, which according to Bart Hubbuch are 2 AA players. We here at MetsMD wish him the best of luck with the Red Sox, and thanks for all the memories, Billy. (The good ones, not the 4 run blown save against the Yanks in '06, or the 2 inning failed saves against the Phils in '07. Or the '06 playoffs)

Johan Santana to undergo minor elbow surgery

2009-08-25T18:10:00.001-04:00

According to this source. He will be ready for spring training. It's bone chips in his elbow. Well, thats a relief. I'm glad he doesn't go out and get more hurt. By the way, the ace of the staff is now Mike Pelfrey.

IT's all pathetic, lose 6-2

2009-08-25T07:15:00.002-04:00

First of all, Johan Santana has a sore elbow, and has been pitching with a sore back since the all-star break. Why. Did. They. Let. Him. Continue. To. Pitch? I sometimes wonder whether the Mets doctors, Omar Minaya, and Jerry Manuel have a brain. He might need season ending surgery. From the same article, we learn that Jeff Francoeur has a torn ligament in his none throwing hand from making a diving catch. Jeff, I urge you to go on the DL. Nevermind your grissiony record of not going on the DL, just do it. Its for your own sake. Jeff Francoeur, you are now a true Met.
And now to the game. Bobby Parnell gave up a 3 run homer to Howard in the first, and then another homer to Howard in the third, this time a 2 run homer. Angel Pagan led off the first with a pop up that Chase Utley dropped, then overthrew second, throwing the ball into left field. Pagan scored with what Gary Cohen called "a little league homer". Gary Sheffield hit a triple, and scored on Tatis' sac fly. However, that would be all offensively for the Mets, as Cliff Lee was his dominant self, scattering 6 hits, striking out 5, and walking none. He lowered his ERA to 0.68, as both runs were unearned. He has a .86 tRA, which equates to about a 0.79 tERA (the rule of thumb is to multiply tRA by .92 to get tERA, because about 92% of all runs are earned). Feliciano gave up a run in the 9th, but Brad Lidge shut the Mets down anyway.
Parnell went 5 innings, gave up 5 runs, struck out 3 and walked 3. The good thing about Parnell is that he does have a 50.8 groundball percentage. The bad news is that he has a 5.68 tRA as a starter (5.23 tERA), and his FIP is about 5.50. I would keep him in the rotation for the rest of the year, but next year, have him be a reliever again.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Not having Johan shut down earlier. Pitching with a sore back since the all-star break when you have nothing to play for does not show good management.
Random Thought of the Day: Luis Castillo needs to be wrapped in bubble wrap. And maybe have a bubble. Hey, Ken Takahashi and his 4.88 tRA is back.
Clutch Play of the Game: Pagan little league home run. +.085 WPA
Up Next f0r the Mets: Start of a 3 game series at Florida, 7:10 PM ET
Nelson Figueroa (1-2, 6.30 ERA 5.99 FIP 7.60 tRA) takes Johan's place. He faces
Sean West (4-5 4.70 ERA 4.89 FIP 5.10 tRA)

Really Johan

2009-08-24T19:07:00.005-04:00

Are you kidding me Santana!? Do you want to join your buddies on the DL or are you just toying with the fans to test our allegiance. You were the only hope that we had for the rest of the year and now you are gonna miss your next start because of discomfort in your pitching elbow. Oh and Frenchie, you're not out of the woods yet either. You have a torn ligament in your left thumb? I broke my thumb and I felt like I could play the next week. You were the best hitter lately and like every other good player that the Mets have had this year you got hurt. I'm surprised actually the you weren't already hurt. So I guess it's good that you got this far. Both you and Santana need to man up and play through your injuries if you want to play on a respectable team. But by losing games on unassisted triple plays, I guess it's hard to respectable.
Edit: Here is where me and Trevor disagree. I feel that Johan should've been on the DL a while back, seeing as we have nothing to play for. Oh look at that, surgery needed.

No, its not a bad dream. Lose, 9-7

2009-08-24T07:31:00.003-04:00

Yes, that did happen. The Mets lost with an unassisted triple play. Way to lose 103,476.
Oliver Perez went .2 innings, and gave up 6 runs. He was pulled with a 3-0 count on Pedro effing Martinez for christ sakes. However, Angel Pagan hit 2 homers off of Pedro Martinez, one inside the park, and one outside. Pedro went 6, gave up 4, walked 1, struck out 5. It is exactly the kind of start he would have for us last year. A day after his blown save, Pat Misch provided good 4 inning scoreless relief. Elmer Dessens pitched a scoreless 9th, but Sean Green gave up a run in the 8th, making it the 3rd straight game he has done that, and 7 out of the last 10. Nelson Figueroa went 2.1, and gave up 2 runs. He now has an ERA of 6.30, a 7.60 tRA and a 5.99 FIP. Jeff Francoeur tripled in the first, with one out, and it could've been 6-3, but both Sullivan and Tatis failed. Fast forward to the ninth, where Angel Pagan reaches third on a Ryan Howard error (BUCKNER!!!). Then Bruntlett boots Castillo's grounder to make it 9-7. Then Murphy does the same except it's an infield single. So there are none out, and the tying run at the plate is Jeff Francoeur. The count is 2-2, and then Jerry inexplicably sends the runners, and Francoeur lines it up the middle. Bruntlett, who is covering second catches it, tags second, and then tags Murphy for the unassisted triple play. It would've been a single if the runners don't go. And thats how the Mets lost. Jerry, trying to stay out of the double play, got the triple play.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Sending the runners. Oh why Jerry. You played the effing dice, Jerry, you played the effing dice. You seriously are a dice player with the way you manage.
Random Thought of the Day: Aren't you glad we have Oliver Perez for the next 2 years, at $24 mill/per. Ollie threw the same amount of pitches in the first, as Misch did in 4.
Clutch Play of the Game: Murphy single in 9th. +.144 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: The finale of the 4 game set with the Phillies
Bobby Parnell (3-5, 4.74 ERA 3.70 FIP 3.77 tRA) will attempt to picth more than .2 of an inning
Cliff Lee (4-0, 0.82 ERA 1.66 FIP .77 tRA) is awesome.
Take heart Mets fans. While me might have lost by a dropped pop up, walk off walk, grand slam, and go ahead wild pitch, we still have not lost on a walk off balk or catcher's interference. Or someone stealing home.

Misch Fails, Bullpen fails, lose 4-1

2009-08-23T08:08:00.003-04:00

On the 40 year celebration of the '69 Mets, these '09 Mets tried to recreate how the '69 Mets did offensively, by only scoring 1 run. However, Jerry and Co did not realize that the '69 version won 100 games mainly because they only allowed 541 runs, second in the league (to the Cardinals-540). These '09 Mets don't have that luxary, and they don't have Seaver, Koosman, Tug McGraw, or even Nolan Ryan. Nope, tonight we had Tim Redding pitching. And to be fair to Tim, he went 5 innings, and gave up 1 hit, walked 3, k'ed 4. And he didn't allow a run. However he was on a 80 pitch count, so he was done. Jerry Manuel turned to newly called up Pat Misch. Which was a mistake, because he walked Victorino, and then gave up a 2 run homer to Chase Utley. Then Sean Green came in, struck out Werth for out number 2, and then gave up a double, another double, and finally got out of the inning after IBB Ruiz, when Happ grounded out. Elmer Dessens pitched a scoreless 7th, but then Feliciano walked Howard to lead off the 8th, gave up a double, got Ibanez to foul out, and then intentionally walked Feliz, leaving the mess to Brian Stokes. Who only allowed 1 run, in a situation where 1.58 runs are expected to score. So kudos to you Brian. Nelson Figueroa pitched a scoreless 9th. In the 9th, the Mets went down 1-2-3. The Mets only left 7 on.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Bringing in Misch. I could get into how bad he is, but do I really need to? He has an ERA of 5, a FIP of 4.97, and a tRA of 6.81. HE SUCKS. You could've gone to Dessens. Or Stokes. Or Billy Wagner.
Random Thought of the Day:If they trade Wagner, please get someone good in return. Like Clay Bucholz. Or Michael Bowden. Oh. Never mind.
Clutch Play of the Game: Omir Santos RBI single in the 2nd. +.093 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Finale, 1:10 PM
Oliver Perez (3-3, 6.06 ERA 5.93 FIP 6.60 tRA) takes on former Met great (be nice to him, Citi faithful)
Pedro Martinez (1-0, 4.50 ERA 3.09 FIP 3.98 tRA)

Big Pelf, Frenchy, if only it mattered. WIN, 4-2

2009-08-22T07:10:00.004-04:00

3 months ago this was a series that was supposed to have mattered. A big 3 game weekend series, sublimely put in by MLB schedulers, so they could have "rivalry weekend". Well I guess the Red Sox-Yankees is still interesting. But, the Mets did win, maybe showing 38,243 (how the hell are they still getting that many?) what can happen. It was a heated game, after a rain delay, and Cole "Choker" Hamels plunked Big Pelf. And he hit Tatis. So Pelfrey hit Werth. You know, I'm not a big fan of the whole hitting people, and brawl thing (Our players could get hurt, if they already aren't hurt), but Pelfrey, if Hamels hit you, hit him back. Especially seeing as he was the first batter in the next inning after you got hit. When the Phillies took the lead, I thought that was that. Yes, I do not have much hope, even though its the first inning. But we came back. In the second Tatis led off with a triple, Murphy drove him in with a ground out, Santos singled, Hernandez flied out, Pelfrey got plunked, and then pagan drove in Santos with a single. Francoeur homered in the third, then Tatis got plunked, Murphy doubled, and Santos brought Tatis in for the Mets 4th and final run. The Phillies got one back in the 6th. Feliciano struck out Victorino and Howard, and Stokes got the final out in the 7th, and pitched a scoreless 8th too. Blow-Rod made it interesting in the 9th, giving up a double to Rollins and an infield single to Victorino, with one out but he struck out Utley and Howard to end the game.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Not going back after Hamels. Cause it would also be payback for the Mets are chokers comments. Even if they're true.
Random Thought of the Day: We're only 13.5 back!!! (Our elimination number is 29)
Clutch Play of the Game: Rollins fly out in 6th with bases loaded, 2 out. +.107 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Second game, 7:10 PM ET
Tim Redding (1-4, 6.53 ERA 5.20 FIP 5.29 tRA) tries to show he is better than Livan.
J.A. Happ (9-2, 2.66 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.79 tRA)
By the Way, Jeff Francoeur's OBP reached .300. When we got him, it was .282.

Wagner has been claimed on waivers

2009-08-21T17:50:00.002-04:00

Apparently it is the Red Sox or Rays. I do not like it. Both those teams will screw us. I'd rather keep Wags, and get 2 draft picks next year, (he's a Type A free agent) or make him the closer and trade Blow-Rod. Because Blow-Rod's walk rate is higher than ever, and his k-rate is lower then ever, all signs of a pitcher's decline. And he has a player option in 2012 for $17.5 million.

The Mets fail at Life; Lose 3-2

2009-08-21T06:58:00.002-04:00

The big news of the night was that Billy Wagner made his return. Entering Sandman was playing, and Billy came in and had a dominant 1-2-3 inning, striking out 2, and threw 95 MPH on average. When is the last time we had a bona fide closer not walk anyone? I say trade Francisco Rodriguez, and keep Billy Wagner, (and maybe Putz too). More on that later today. The other big news was that, when Wagner was activated from the DL, the Mets released Livan Hernandez. Finally.
Johan went 7 innings, gave up 9 hits, and only struck out 2, which is a little concerning. Cory Sullivan got the Mets run in the 3rd. The Mets threatened in the 8th; Jeff Francoeur reached on a throwing error by Larry Jones. But then Gary Sheffield (who had been left out of the lineup after asking for a contract extension) struck out as a pinch hitter. But Tatis walked, and Omir "Short Swing" Santos pinched hit for Schneider, and got an RBI single. Francoeur scored, and it looks promising. Until Anderson Hernandez grounded out weakly on 2-0 pitch. Castillo did single in the 9th, but the other Mets went quietly. Ryan Church out hit Francoeur.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Not pinch hitting for Anderson Hernandez. I know, I know, who would pinch hit for him:Wilson Valdez? Andy Green? At this stage, Nick Evans really should be up.
Random Thought of the Day: I hope Tim Redding doesn't start now that Livan is gone. Maybe they'll give it to Figgy, or maybe bring up Tobi Stoner. What's that? Tim Redding is starting on Saturday? Against J.A. Happ? Great.
Clutch Play of the Game: Omir Santos RBI single in 8th. +.128 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: Spoiler series against the Phillies.
Mike Pelfrey (8-8, 4.75 ERA 4.01 FIP 4.62 tRA)
Cole Choker Hamels (7-7, 4.69 ERA 4.15 FIP 5.10 tRA)

Shocker

2009-08-20T20:08:00.004-04:00

I know it's late but I have to talk about it. Is anyone shocked that the Mets let up 15 runs after a come back. That is how the season has gone. Big hopes and to no ones surprise they fail. This is just another chapter in my big book of why the season is over.

Lost 15-2

2009-08-20T07:15:00.004-04:00

The Atlanta Falcons defeated the New York Giants today, 15-2, in front of just 38,602 fans at Giant Stadium. The Falcons scored 8, after Anderson Hernandez fumbled, and Omar Infante returned it to the endzone. The Giants then let Brian McCann take it in himself for the 2 point conversion. The other touchdown was scored when Bobby Parnell threw an interception that was returned by Matt Diaz. The Giants got their 2 points when Chipper Jones uncharacteristically got tackled in his own endzone for a safety. After the game, Coach Jerry Manuel said the fumbles and interceptions were due to "a lack of communication." The next Giants game is at the Miami Dolphins.
Wait, what? Oh, right. Football season hasn't started yet. Except for pre-season. Oh. Sorry, about that.
Ok, the baseball game: Parnell gave up a bunch of soft hits, then Anderson Hernandez bailed on him defensively, (and so did Castillo), and then Parnell gave up a 3 run bomb. He should still be left in the rotation for this year, but he has more promise as a reliever. Nelson Figueroa gave up 2 runs in 2 innings, Tim Redding gave up 3 runs in 3 innings, and Green gave up 1 run in an inning. Parnell went 3 and gave up 9. The Mets got their runs in the 3rd and 5th, but the Braves could've pitched Tom Glavine right handed, and they still would've won.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Luis Castillo not going to second, and Anderson Hernandez not throwing to first. You are taught in little league to get the sure out. This is the Majors, Anderson.
Random Thought of the Day: It's 15-2, and a position player doesn't even get to pitch? Jesus, Jerry, give these fans something entertaining. At least it takes their mind off the drek that they paid to watch.
Clutch Play of the Game: Church flies 0ut to center in the second. +.040 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: End of the series. 7:10 PM ET
Johan Santana (13-8, 3.10 ERA 3.75 FIP 3.78 tRA) looks to keep it closer than a football score. He'll face
Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.13 ERA 4.59 FIP 4.92 tRA)

What Torture? Win 9-4

2009-08-19T07:52:00.003-04:00

Its a rare thing these days when the Mets get one hit, so imagine how surprised I was when they set a team record for hits in an inning, with 10. Yes, that's right. The Mets got 10 hits. In one inning. (I should predict no hitters more often) The Ten hit men were, in order: Pagan, Castillo, Sheffield, Francoeur, Tatis, Santos, Hernandez, Oliver Perez (.250/.286/.250), Castillo, Sheffield. The outs were made by Daniel Murphy (groundout and strikeout), and Pagan (RBI Fielder Choice). The Mets tacked on a run in the 8th, and Brian Stokes came in to end the game, striking out one in the 9th. He lowered his ERA to 2.96, despite a 5.35 tRA and a 4.39 FIP. Oliver Perez went 5 innings, and gave up 4 runs. But there are some positives: 3 of the runs came on a homer, and not an endless inning. He threw 81 pitches in those 5 innings. He could've gone at least one more inning. He struck out 4, and walked 1. That is right: On the day the Mets get 10 hits in an inning, Oliver Perez walked one batter. And the Mets won. And Ryan Church went 0/4, Jeff Francoeur went 3/5. Which of these things do not belong?
Stupid Decision of the Day: I cannot find anything wrong with the way Jerry Manuel managed this game. But he should still go at the end of the year, along with Omar. I lobby for Omar to be fired (not a grammar mistake, the "lobby")
Random Thought of the Day: They say lightning doesn't strike twice, but then how did the Mets AAA team (with some other MLB caliber players) get 10 hits in an inning and 8 runs?
Clutch Play of the Game: Sheffield 2 run double in the fourth. +.126 WPA
Up Next for the Mets: second game, Mets vs Braves, 7:10 PM ET
Bobby Parnell (3-4, 3.50 ERA 3.43 FIP 3.52 tRA) faces a stronger lineup. He faces
Jair Jurrjens (9-8, 2.99 ERA 3.71 FIP 4.26 tRA)

Grission

2009-08-18T10:51:00.003-04:00

Grit and Passion. It's on urban dictionary.
and here is a shirt:

This is Painful. Lose 10-1

2009-08-18T07:17:00.003-04:00

The big news of the evening was that Steven Strasburg signed a 4 year deal worth $15 million. Great. The whole point to lose these games was so we could get Strasburg. We were the only team that could afford him. The Mets signed there top pick, Steven Matz. Glad Fred Wilpon can still shell out $895,000 to him. You know what the Mets could get for $895,000? A pitcher who is better than Livan Hernandez (they could get someone like that for $400,000).
But, back to the game. Livan was terrible. Absolutely godawful suckyness. 5.1 innings of 6 run baseball. JERRY EXPLAIN TO ME WHY HE IS STILL ON THE TEAM?????????? He has a 5.72 DERA (Baseball Prospectus ERA scaled stat, defence independent, and I'm using it because I get minor league translations). You know who has a lower translated DERA for Buffalo? (And who is younger) Tobi Stoner (5.29), Kyle Snyder (5.29). You know who has that at Binghamton? Ryan Coultas (4.06) and Chris Mason (3.38). Not to mention Nelson Figueroa who is in the bullpen (gave up a run today). At this point Tim Redding could be better. Actually, probably not. Seeing as he gave up 3 runs in an inning. And we scored 1 run. And guess who is pitching tonight: Oliver Perez. When does it end? I mean, come on. I think when Livan pitches and when we have expanded rosters, the ~~AAA~~ AA team should play. Alex Cora went on the DL to have surgery for his ligament. Well, he showed grission by playing for 3 months with that injury.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Cory Sullivan getting thrown out at home in the first. Using Win Expectancy, the break even point is 124%. That means that he has to be safe on those plays 124% of the time for it to be a good decision. Obviously, thats impossible. So using Run Expectancy we see that the break even point is 77%. So Sullivan has to take the extra base successfully 77% of the time. And Francoeur was on deck. Francoeur probably would not have hit into a double play, as he's only hit into 1 as a Met. So Razor Shines, shame on you.
Random Thought of the Day: You know its a sad state of affairs when the lead story on Mets.com is about David Wright's leadership. When he is on the DL (he's the leader of the people on the DL, there's almost enough for a whole team!)
Clutch Play of the Game: Sheffield RBI single in the third. +.112 WPA(*100 to get%)
The Next Torture Session for Fans: Braves at Mets 7:10 PM ET
Oliver Perez (2-3 5.97 ERA, 5.83 FIP, 6.48 tRA) looks to make this torture quick.
Derek Lowe (12-7, 4.08 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 4.32 tRA) will throw a no hitter.

Murph!!! Win 3-2

2009-08-17T07:00:00.002-04:00

The Mets won their first game of the post David Wright playing every day era. As the third baseman was put on the DL (hopefully for the rest of the year, and OMG OMG OMG Omar didn't do something stupid!!!), his teammates were celebrating in a walk off dogpile, which could provoke more injuries. With David Wright out, his teammates tried to replace his prescience in the lineup. There was Fernando Tatis striking out in his 2 official at bats. And, then there was also Luis Castillo hitting a home run to the second deck. Is this some kind of bizarro world that we live in? No, its not. Because, with a 2-1 lead going into the 8th, and having thrown only 90 pitches, Jerry left Big Pelf in, and he promptly gave up 2 doubles to blow the lead. But Brian Stokes and Pedro Feliciano came on, and got the job done. I feel that Feliciano and Stokes should be the relief aces (closers), and used like Orosco and McDowell were in 1986. The Mets did nothing in the 8th, and in the top of the 9th Blow-Rod came in (to the nervousness of all the 38,793 Citi Faithful). But, he struck out the side, to become K-Rod again. And, then Francoeur singled (to the shortstop), Tatis bunted him over, and Daniel Murphy hit the walk off single.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Leaving Pelfrey in for the 8th. Because this year batters are batting .333/.500/.333 against him in the 8th, and not only that, but batters are batting .360/.429/.440 after 101 pitches (he threw 104). And, not only that but the fourth time around the order (which is what Pelf was in), batters are batting .333/.500/.500 (compared with
.297/.355/.464 in the third time.)
Random Thought of the Day: Seeing as Wright is now on the DL, maybe Murphy should play third, just to see if his bat will play there. His bat really doesn't play for first. Oh yeah, I hope they call up Nick Evans to replace Wright. That would be nice. Hold on? What's that? They called up Andy Green? a 32 year old who is a career .199/.280/.265? But, wait he can play everywhere. I think Mestradamus was right when he said they were grooming utility players. Not Nick Evans who has gotten his average up 100 points since going back down to AAA? And who crushes lefties? Ok. Thanks, Omar. (Green-translated .231/.295/.368)
Clutch Play of the Game: Daniel Murphy walk off!!! +.299 WPA (multiply by 100 to get percent)
Up Next for the Mets: Finale of 4 game series with Giants
Livan Hernandez (7-7 5.08 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 5.74 tRA) will try to be the Giants by eating all of them. He'll face
Joe Martinez (2-1 6.00 ERA, 3.01 FIP (someone's unlucky), 4.85 tRA)

David Wright- Out For The Year?

2009-08-16T21:56:00.005-04:00

If David Wright is actually out for the season, as Jerry stated today, this could be a huge hit to the team even though the season is pretty much over for them. On Saturday David was hit by a pitch squarely on the head and was kept at the hospital over night, having concussion like symptoms. Wright is probably the best player on the team and when talking about players you absolutely have to keep, he is always the first name. His injury would go on a long list of injures that the Mets have suffered this season. Names like Reyes, Delgado, and Beltran are already on the list, so David would just be another name on the all star DL. The thing the Mets need to do is that if he is done for the year, don't risk it by trying to shorten his recovery time. The Mets need to accept that they have nothing to play for any more and leave their injuries alone. That means that Beltran, Delgado, Reyes, maybe Wright, and all other major players that are injured should not play this season to make sure that they are fully recovered for next season.
----Aidan G.: There are 11 people on the DL right now.

Did the game really matter in the end? Lose, 5-4

2009-08-16T07:32:00.002-04:00

Did anyone care about what happened to the game after Wright got hit? Well, I mean we did care, but I think everyone was more concerned about Wright. For those of you who don't know (how do you not know) David Wright got hit in the head in the fourth inning. He left the field under his own power, went to the hospital, the CT scan was negative, but he has a concussion, and stayed at the hospital overnight. Seeing as how the Mets messed up when Ryan Church had a concussion, I have no confidence in this medical staff doing anything right. I would shut Wright down for a week, (if not the rest of the year; what's the point) and then have his head examined by an independent, professional doctor. So yeah. By the way, our chance of getting into the playoffs is .2%, according to coolstandings.com.
So, the game. Well, we went 1 up, but Johan was just not good enough, and gave up 4 in 6.2. Really, Johan you must do better than that. But then, down 4-1, we came back! Sullivan singled in Hernandez with one out, Castillo walked, Tatis singled in Sullivan, moving Castillo to third, and then Sheffield hit a sac fly. Murphy was intentionally walked, but Francoeur flied out. Francisco Rodriguez came in the ninth, and got a 1-2-3 inning. The Mets did nothing in the 9th, and Blow-Rod gave up a homer to Bengie Molina in the 10th. The Mets went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the tenth.
Stupid Decision of the Day: Santana not hitting Sandoval. Because on the next pitch he hit a homer. You drill him, Johan. Come on.
Random Thought of the Day: How the hell do 39,652 still go to the games? What is there to watch? Cory Sullivan, Fernando Tatis and Livan Hernandez take on Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and JD Martin of the Washington Nationals. I'd rather watch the Nats.
Clutch Play of the Game: Tatis RBI single in the 8th. +.234 WPA (times by a hundred to get the percentage)
Up Next: 3rd game of 4 game set at 1:10 PM
Mike Pelfrey (8-8 4.88 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.83 tRA) who looks to hit every Giants batter in the head*. He'll face
Jonathan Sanchez (5-10 4.61 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 4.39 tRA)
*-In no way does MetsMD promote violence against San Francisco Giants.

Mets uniforms

2009-08-15T17:09:00.001-04:00

As my first post in about a week and first as a 24 year old, I would like to talk about the uniforms the Mets wore for game against the Giants today. They were white with a N on one side of the buttons and a Y on the other side. Really. For some reason the Mets don't believe in dressing well. First it was those dominos pizza like patches, than the ugly black hats, and now these uniforms. What's next, orange pants? The Mets play very close to NYC, one of the major fashion cities in the world, and they don't know how to dress. I don't see the Yankees putting out a new uni every week, or the Red Sox. The Mets need to keep the traditional uniforms, with the white pinstripes, white pants, and blue hat.

tRA now on fangraphs.com

2009-08-15T07:14:00.003-04:00

I used to get it from statcorner.com, and still might, I'm not sure. The tRA on fangraphs will be a little different then on statcorner, because they use different batted ball info, and different park factors.
By the way, tRA is not on a ERA scale. To get it to a ERA scale (tERA) multiply the tRA by .92.
Here is some info on tRA. (Read the comments; some of them have more info)

Parnell: 3-0

2009-08-15T06:47:00.002-04:00

In front of 38,997, Bobby Parnell showed us a glimpse of what could be in 2010. Sure, it was against the anemic San Francisco Giants lineup (they had 3 guys who had OBP's above the league average. Even in our injured state, we have 5), but he went 6 efficient innings, striking out 7, walking none, and scattering 3 hits. He threw 86 pitches, 61 for strikes, and he had a 7-4 groundout to flyouts ratio. The Mets got their runs in the first, fourth and sixth. In the first, Angel Pgan hit a leadoff homer, in the fourth, Francoeur hit a 2 out double, and in the sixth, Sheffield hit a sac fly. In the sixth, the Mets could've made it 4-0, as Wright was at second with one out, but Francoeur and Tatis grounded out. Brian Stokes pitched a 1-2-3 7th, and got the first in the 8th, but then gave up a single and walk. Pedro Feliciano came into his 64th game, and got out of the jam. In the 9th, Francisco Rodriguez came on to get the save, and looked very happy when he got it done. (Maybe Parnell threatened to use his hunting skills against him if he blew it)
Stupid Decision of the Day: Nothing. Nada.
Random Thought of the Day: If Parnell turns out to be good, I could see a rotation of Johan, Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell, Perez. But I would like a dependable number 2. Trade Perez.
Clutch Play of the Game: Francoeur RBI double in fourth. +11.4 %WPA
Up Next for the Mets: second game of 4 game set with Giants, 4:10 PM ET (FOX)
Johan Santana (13-8 3.00 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.59 tRA) takes on
Matt Cain (12-4 2.44 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.97 tRA)

Mets Rundown 8/13

2009-08-14T07:40:00.003-04:00

David Wright could be injured. He denies it.
Delgado had a setback. Is anyone surprised? Meanwhile, Wags is closer.
Jerry is deciding whether to drop Livan from the rotation. Does it matter?
Sam Page of Amazin Avenue looks at Jeff Francoeur
The Mets start a 3 game set with the wild card leading Giants. I predict a sweep. (as in us getting swept)

Rundown 8/12/09

2009-08-13T11:18:00.002-04:00

Possible Playoff Match-Up:
Boston Red Sox beat the Detroit Tigers, 8-2
Are things back on track? With their third straight win, the Sox still lead the Wild Card and are still within striking distance of the division title. Josh Beckett pitched 7 innings of 2-run ball to achieve his league-leading 14th win, and together the Sox hurlers only let up 3 hits. The offense continued its rise, getting 11 hits (2 homers by Jason Bay and Mike Lowell). Today Boston goes for the four-game sweep.
Los Angeles Angels beat the Tampa Bay Rays 10-5.

Pitching Performance of the Night:
Felix Hernandez, SEA: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K vs. Chicago White Sox
King Felix and Chicago starter Mark Buerhle both pitched terrifically, but after 14 innings it was the Mariners who came out in front of the 1-0 contest. Hernandez was helped by his defense, who turned 2 double plays, threw out a runner at home (who but Ichiro) and a pick-off at first base. Hernandez is now 6th in Ks and 7th in ERA in the MLB.
Honorable Mention: Francisco Liriano, MIN: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Offensive Performance of the Night:
Hunter Pence, HOU: 2 for 5, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI vs. Florida
Pence struck the ball well twice tonight, but he was fortunate that both homers were 3-run shots. He took advantage of a slug-fest against Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco, who let up 10 runs in 3.1 innings (great, for my fantasy team). Luckily, Pence is also on my fantasy team. Carlos Lee also had a great game, getting 3 hits with 3 RBI. The Astros won 14-6.
Honorable Mention: Jason Bay, BOS: 3 for 3, 2 2B, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

No 1 pick standings, updated

2009-08-13T09:16:00.002-04:00

The Mets are still the 10th worst team in the Majors. And we are now 13 behind (ahead?) of Washington. 1.5 back of Arizona, and 1.5 ahead (behind?) of Toronto.